Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/7/2026 at 6:30 am EEST.

Betolar will publish its H1 report on Wednesday, August 12, at around 8:30 am EEST. We expect revenue to have more than doubled, driven by deliveries from an infrastructure order received in late 2025, but we anticipate that the result remains clearly unprofitable. The timing of grant recognition may cause the reported EBITDA to fluctuate from our estimate, but this will not have any informational value for the company's valuation. Our main focus in the report will be on order intake, progress on the financing and restructuring arrangement announced in June, and the new CEO's initial comments.

We expect revenue to have more than doubled from a low comparison level

Although Betolar does not report its order book, based on the announced orders received and the reported revenue figures, we estimate that the company began the current year with a record order book, supported by the infrastructure order announced at the end of 2025. Backed by this order book, we anticipate that H1'26 revenue has more than doubled from the low comparison period level to 1.0 MEUR (H1'25: 0.4 MEUR). We expect EBITDA to have settled at -1.8 MEUR in H1'26 (H1'25: -2.1 MEUR). Thus, we expect Q2'26 to have been slightly stronger operationally than Q1, supported by revenue. However, with lower grant income (0.1 MEUR in our estimate), reported EBITDA was approximately at the level of the previous quarter. At the end of Q1'26, Betolar had undrawn grants of just under 1 MEUR. Grants are recognized in other operating income against the accumulation of project costs and, due to the timing of recognition, EBITDA may significantly deviate from our estimate. This should not be interpreted as a positive or negative surprise in terms of the company's value development. We expect depreciation and amortization to total around 1 MEUR and financial expenses, consisting mainly of capitalized interest on subordinated loans, to amount to approximately -0.2 MEUR. After this, we expect H1'26 EPS to have been deeply in the red at EUR -0.14, similar to the comparison period (vs. equity at the end of 2025 of EUR 0.10/share).

Expectations for orders are low

We have moderate expectations regarding new orders for the reporting period. Betolar has not announced any significant new orders during early 2026, and in addition, the recent change of CEO, in our view, increases the likelihood of more subdued scenarios in terms of progress toward commercialization. We expect new orders of 0.5 MEUR in H1'26, in line with the comparison period, of which approximately half have already been reported by the company in its Q1'26 business review.

Balance sheet in turmoil

Betolar announced a significant change to its business model and ownership structure in June. The total financing package announced amounted to a maximum of 17 MEUR, part of which is directed to project-level SPVs outside the Betolar Group. We commented on the financing package earlier here. According to our estimates, the balance sheet in the half-year report will show convertible capital notes of 3 MEUR to be recognized in equity, which is sufficient to raise the company’s equity above zero (without this arrangement, we estimate that equity would have fallen into negative territory due to losses). We expect the drawdowns on the 3 MEUR bank loan signed at the end of June to occur only in H2. In addition, the 2.1 MEUR EU grant for the further development of metal extraction technology, announced by Betolar during H1, strengthens the company's liquidity buffer, although the grant will be drawn down over several years as the project progresses.

Focus on the revised group structure and the new CEO’s initial comments

Betolar's guidance calls for significant revenue growth for the current year, and to meet this guidance, the company essentially just needs to deliver the major infrastructure project announced at the end of 2025 as planned. We expect revenue to grow to 2.7 MEUR and the loss at the EBITDA level to narrow to -3.0 MEUR (2025: -3.7 MEUR). In light of the recent CEO change, extensive layoffs, and changes in the ownership structure, the forecast risks are clearly skewed downwards. We therefore anticipate that the company will outline its proposed multi-tiered commercial and ownership structure, as well as its role in relation to the company’s other business operations, in its report. We will also pay close attention to the initial comments from the company’s new CEO, Vibeke Krohn, on earnings release day. Today, the company is holding an extraordinary general meeting to decide on a general authorization enabling the tap issuance of subsequent notes in the amount of 3 MEUR, among other things. We consider the approval of the authorization virtually certain, as the largest shareholders have already pledged their support. Confirmation of the equity investments under the memorandum of understanding with Scalewolf, a key partner, would also clarify the outlook toward the desired company structure.