Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/28/2026 at 9:30 am EET.

Betolar published its Q3'26 business review this morning. Revenue and order intake missed our forecasts, as a large infrastructure order had already been mostly delivered and new projects had not yet reached the delivery phase. EBITDA also missed our estimate, though the gap is explained by lower-than-expected grants. Cash and cash equivalents rose to 8.6 MEUR following financing arrangements, roughly in line with our expectations. With order intake below our expectations, our preliminary view is that our current-year forecasts face downward pressure. The company’s webcast can be followed here from 1:00 pm EET.

New projects did not yet offset the infrastructure order

Betolar’s Q3'26 revenue grew by 27% to 0.28 MEUR but fell clearly short of our 0.4 MEUR forecast. Revenue declined quarter-on-quarter (Q2'26: 0.46 MEUR), as, according to the company, key projects were completed and new ones had not yet reached the delivery phase. The tapering of revenue from the infrastructure order was expected, but new projects and material sales did not offset it to the extent we expected. The ramp-up of blast furnace slag sales in Finland has taken longer than expected, and volumes in India remain at the 2025 level.

Order intake was only 0.09 MEUR, against our forecast of 0.5 MEUR. According to the CEO’s review, new orders of ~0.3 MEUR were received in October, after the period, and a protection design project was launched with Enersense for a major Finnish infrastructure operator. For a company of Betolar’s size, individual orders can change the outlook quickly, but so far demand has converted into orders more slowly than we expected.

Lower grants weigh on EBITDA

Q3'26 EBITDA was -1.1 MEUR (Q3'25: -1.0 MEUR), against our forecast of -0.8 MEUR. Other operating income, mainly grants, was 0.08 MEUR, while our forecast included ~0.36 MEUR, so the EBITDA miss is explained by lower-than-expected grant payments. EBITDA excluding grants was -1.1 MEUR, slightly better than our estimate (~-1.2 MEUR), as temporary layoffs and headcount reductions lightened the cost base.

Cash and short-term fund investments totaled 8.6 MEUR at the end of the period (Q2'26: 5.9 MEUR), roughly in line with our expectations. The cash position was boosted by convertible bond tranches (totaling 2 MEUR) and a 3 MEUR bank loan. During the quarter, the company paid 1 MEUR for 20-year exclusive rights to ~9.4 million tons of titanium-bearing tailings from Otanmäki, from which it aims to extract metals together with its new partner, ScaleWolf. We estimate that current funding will last into 2028, allowing the company to advance its commercialization projects at least through 2027.

Focus on subsidiaries and Capital Markets Day

Betolar reiterated its guidance, under which revenue will grow significantly in 2026 from the previous year, and nine-month revenue (1.2 MEUR) has already exceeded full-year 2025 revenue. Before the report, our full-year forecasts were revenue of 1.7 MEUR, order intake of 1.3 MEUR, and EBITDA of -3.6 MEUR. Reaching these would require Q4 revenue of ~0.5 MEUR, order intake of 0.9 MEUR, and EBITDA of -0.5 MEUR, which looks challenging given the low order intake in Q3 and October. Our preliminary view is therefore that our forecasts face downward pressure.

In our view, progress on the new structure matters more than the quarterly figures. ScaleWolf’s 2 MEUR will go toward subsidiary shares only if the subsidiaries are sufficiently operational by mid-December, and final agreements on the 8 MEUR additional investment are targeted by the end of the year. In the webcast, we will be looking in particular for signs of a turnaround in order intake and for the timeline of the subsidiary arrangements. The Capital Markets Day will be held on November 26.