Automatic translation: Originally published in Danish 03/11/2026, 06:30 GMT. Give feedback here.

BioMar published its Q3 financial report yesterday afternoon before the market close. The results came in significantly better than expected, marking the strongest quarter in the company's history in terms of both volume and EBIT. This was accompanied by an upward revision to the guidance for both revenue and earnings for 2026, while the volume guidance was decreased.

Compared with market expectations, earnings represent a significant positive surprise. EBIT came in at 618 MDKK vs. a consensus estimate (Capital IQ) of 487 MDKK, while revenue landed at 5,807 MDKK vs. the expected 5,715 MDKK. Consensus covers four analysts' estimates for the quarter, and the highest EBIT estimate among them was 513 MDKK, while the most optimistic estimate for the gross margin stood at 22.4%. The margin ended at ~24.8%. EBITDA, EBIT, and EPS thus all came in above every estimate in the market, while revenue remained within the expected range.

Guidance raised, but when will earnings normalize?

The EBIT guidance is raised to 1,290–1,360 MDKK from the previous 1,200–1,300 MDKK – meaning around 75 MDKK higher at both ends of the range. The revenue guidance is correspondingly raised to 17.8–18.6 BDKK from 17.0–18.0 BDKK, driven by both higher raw material prices and foreign exchange. Conversely, the volume guidance is decreased to 1,600–1,650 thousand tonnes from 1,630–1,700, while CAPEX is maintained unchanged at 400–500 MDKK.

Full-year consensus averaged 1,268 MDKK for EBIT, with a range of 1,235 MDKK to 1,294 MDKK among the five analysts covering the share on an annual basis. This means that even the highest estimate in the market sits only just within the bottom of the new guidance, while the average is 22 MDKK below the bottom of the range and 57 MDKK below the midpoint. Earnings estimates are therefore expected to be upgraded broadly.

However, the arithmetic behind the guidance is worth noting. With 977 MDKK in EBIT after nine months, the new guidance implies Q4 EBIT of 313–383 MDKK (midpoint 348 MDKK) vs. 347 MDKK last year and vs. a consensus estimate of 429 MDKK. Part of the margin gain on expensive marine ingredients depends on when raw materials are purchased and consumed, which may have pulled earnings forward into Q3 at the expense of Q4. This type of timing effect may partly explain why the result was significantly better than analysts expected.

The market can thus read the new guidance in two ways. Either the upward revision is driven entirely by better-than-expected results in the first three quarters, and earnings are now normalizing. Or the guidance is conservative, and yet another upward revision could be in the cards.

The company's own comments on the marine raw material market, where high price levels are expected to continue through Q4 and into 2027 following the cancellation of Peru's second fishing season, point to the latter.

What the market will particularly try to understand is precisely this: the duration and sustainability of the current margin gains. How long can BioMar maintain earnings per tonne at this level, and what will happen to them when raw material prices eventually normalize? Consequently, how much of the expected 2026 upward revisions to estimates should be carried forward into 2027.

Earnings per tonne increased by 45%

Revenue is a poor indicator of how BioMar is performing. The business model is cost-plus, which means that raw material prices are passed on to the customer.

What can actually be managed is earnings per tonne sold. Therefore, the gross margin and EBIT per tonne are the figures that reveal whether BioMar has created added value for the customer and received payment for it. The gross margin rose to ~24.8% from 22.0% in the same quarter last year. The key figure EBIT excl. Tech Solutions and results from biological assets per tonne rose to 1,221 DKK from 840 DKK, an increase of 45%. For the first nine months, the figure is 804 DKK vs. 650 DKK. Value creation per tonne is therefore not only intact through one of the sharpest raw material price increases in recent times, but has also risen significantly.

The caveat therefore lies not in the numbers, but in their sustainability, and the company is unusually explicit about this: earnings are above historical levels, and this is not necessarily expected to continue. The mechanism is that when marine ingredients rise as sharply as they have during the current El Niño, the gain from substituting away from the most expensive ingredients becomes unusually large, and this gain is shared between BioMar and the customer.

However, part of the progress is of a permanent nature and is built on volume growth, customer mix, capacity utilization, and the structural value of being able to formulate based on nutrients rather than specific raw materials.

The only real minus in the report is the volume downward revision. It reflects weaker demand in selected salmon and shrimp markets, particularly in Ecuador, where uncertainty regarding the national electricity supply also increases the risk of temporary production halts. When farmers' own prices are low and feed costs rise, feed purchases are adjusted, which hits shrimp the hardest due to the short production cycle.

Salmon carries the quarter, Shrimp weighs on it

The entire explanation for the quarter's earnings lies in Salmon. The segment delivered 518 MDKK in EBIT vs. 276 MDKK last year on volume growth of 4%, and earnings per tonne rose to 1,689 DKK from 954 DKK. The EBIT margin went from 8.2% to 12.9%. Volume grew in Australia, Scotland, and Norway, more than offsetting lower volume in Chile, where BioMar prioritized value-creating partnerships over volumes.

Selected Species continued its stable development with 7% higher volume and EBIT of 107 MDKK vs. 98 MDKK, driven by customer mix and good capacity utilization.

The counterpart is Shrimp, where EBIT fell by 51% to 20 MDKK despite 7% higher volume. Record-low farm-gate prices in Ecuador and sharply rising prices for fishmeal protein made it impossible to pass on costs, and the quarter included 13 MDKK in additional provisions for bad debts as well as start-up costs in Vietnam. This is the same dynamic as in the first half of the year, only exacerbated.

Tech Solutions delivered 19 MDKK vs. 23 MDKK, and the transformation toward SaaS and direct sales is proceeding as planned.

Cash flow has turned

At the half-year mark, cash flow was among the items to watch in Q3 because inventory tie-up from high raw material prices was dragging down operating cash flow. That question has been answered positively. Operating cash flow rose to 675 MDKK from 445 MDKK, working capital contributed 65 MDKK in the quarter, and working capital has fallen to 1,546 MDKK from 1,644 MDKK at the same time last year, even though inventories are 27% higher in value.

ROIC incl. goodwill rose to 27.1% from 21.9% and now sits significantly above the target of over 20%.

The investment case

For the investment case, the most important observation continues to be the relationship between volume and earnings. In the first nine months, the three feed segments – Salmon, Shrimp, and Selected Species – delivered 1,075 MDKK in EBIT vs. 804 MDKK last year, representing growth of 34% on volume growth of 5%. This is well above the ambition of 8 to 10% annual EBIT growth towards 2030 upon which the long-term targets are built, and part of this lead will normalize.

However, the direction confirms that the model creates the most value precisely when the raw material market is most challenged, and that is the core of the case: exposure to structural growth in aquaculture without the price and biological risk that characterizes the rest of the value chain.

Today at 2:00 PM, we are hosting an event with CEO Carlos Diaz, where we will dive into the quarterly results and the background to the upward revision together. This will be followed by a Q&A session.

Sign up here:
https://www.inderes.dk/videos/biomar-presentation-of-the-q3-2026-interim-report

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from BioMar for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 07:30 AM, Nov 3, 2026