Byggmästaren Q1’26 preview: Volatile quarter weighs on NAV, discount remains elevated

Byggmästaren reports its Q1'26 results on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Based on the listed holdings' share price performance during the quarter, coupled with volatile financial markets and a turbulent geopolitical environment, which we believe have weighed modestly on private holdings valuations, we estimate the company's NAV* per share declined by -3% to SEK 65 in Q1. At the current share price of SEK 52.5, the stock trades at a discount of ~19% to our estimated NAV, below the 5-year historical average discount of 9%, a gap we view as excessive given Byggmästaren's portfolio composition, balance sheet strength, and track record.

Green drags listed holdings, and we expect modest valuation pressure across unlisted assets too

Based on the listed assets' closing share prices at quarter-end, we estimate a modest net negative value change of -6 MSEK (-18 MSEK when excluding investments made in Green during Q1) in Byggmästaren's listed holdings, driven primarily by continued pressure on Green Landscaping's share price (Q1'26: -6%). While visibility into the unlisted holdings is limited between reporting periods, we estimate some valuation pressure due to the elevated risk premium that characterized the quarter, stemming from the US–Iran conflict, which contributed to increased market volatility and weighed on peer group multiples. That said, we expect the valuations of Safe Life and DP Patterning to remain relatively stable quarter-on-quarter as company-specific developments are expected to partially offset any multiple compression. Finally, we note that broader equity market sentiment has recovered in April following progress in the US–Iran conflict, which we believe should provide a supportive backdrop for private asset valuations going forward, all else equal.

Green meets an easy comparison period and DP Patterning's capacity ramp-up is expected to drive continued strong growth

Last year's unusually mild winter in Sweden and Norway weighed heavily on Green's financials (organic growth -18%, EBITA more than halved), creating a light comparison period entering Q1'26. Although Green's end markets have remained relatively soft post-Q4, particularly in Sweden and Norway, we believe the combination of more normal winter conditions, a gradual reduction in dependency on snow and ice removal services, and executed cost reductions and restructuring measures (including divestments of underperforming subsidiaries) will support solid top-line growth and improved margins in Q1'26 (see graph below).

For Safe Life, we have not modelled any contribution from the March acquisitions, expecting these to feed through from April onwards. To our understanding, Safe Life’s revenue streams are broadly evenly distributed across the year, with some seasonal skew toward Q4 in the US driven by budgeting cycles. Our Q1'26 revenue estimate of 78 MEUR (Q1'25: 58 MEUR) implies 35% growth year-on-year, of which ~10% is expected to be organic. We forecast an EBITA margin of 9.4%, which we expect to expand gradually through the year as the company continues its transition toward a solutions-oriented sales approach and realizes further procurement scale.

DP Patterning closed 2025 strongly, and we believe the ongoing capacity expansion will sustain a high pace of deliveries into Q1'26. We estimate Q1 revenue of 26 MSEK (Q1'25: 8 MSEK) and EBITDA of 3.5 MSEK, implying a margin of 13.5%. Looking ahead, we note that converting active sales dialogues into long-term agreements and broadening the customer base will be key to maintain healthy utilization as capacity grows and reduce the operational risks accompanied with the current high customer concentration.

Byggmästaren builds on Green position and wraps up Ge-Te Media exit

Byggmästaren repurchased 2 MSEK worth of shares during Q1 under its 50 MSEK buyback program, where we estimate ~42 MSEK of the authorization remains unutilized. We believe the company is likely to extend the program beyond the upcoming AGM in May 2026, given the low liquidity in the share that continues to constrain the pace of repurchases. Additionally, Byggmästaren added 12 MSEK worth of shares (at SEK 44 and SEK 39, respectively) to its Green position during the quarter and completed the divestment of Ge-Te Media, generating proceeds of ~18 MSEK. In aggregate, investments and divestments resulted in a net cash inflow of 6 MSEK during the quarter, based on publicly available information.

Our Q1'26 NAV estimate points to a ~3% decline as the P/NAV discount continues to widen well beyond historical levels

After incorporating estimated value changes in holdings, completed corporate transactions, and the impact of operating expenses, we estimate Q1'26 NAV of 1,880 MSEK, down from 1,935 MSEK in Q4'25 (-3%), corresponding to a NAV per share (NAVPS) of SEK 65 (SEK 67). Relative to the benchmark index (SIXRX), which returned -1% in Q1'26, both Byggmästaren's NAV development and total shareholder return (TSR) were subdued at -3% and -14%, respectively. The resulting P/NAV discount of ~19% stands well above both the 5-year historical average of -9% and the Q4'25 exit discount of -8%, which we attribute to investor uncertainty around the unlisted portfolio (~60% of NAV) amid volatile market conditions. Nevertheless, we continue to view the current discount as too steep given Byggmästaren's portfolio composition, balance sheet strength, and track record.

*Our Q1'26 NAV estimate is not a reflection of our view of the portfolio's fair value, but rather an assessment of what we believe Byggmästaren will report, based on observable listed asset price movements and our best approximation of unlisted asset developments quarter-on-quarter.