Canatu targets 100-150 MEUR revenue in 2030

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 3/26/2026 at 8:21 am EET.

Canatu published its updated strategy and new long-term financial targets on Wednesday, ahead of its Capital Markets Day, which begins today at 10 am EET. The company's targeted revenue of 100–150 MEUR and an adjusted EBIT margin of 25-30% in 2030 are well in line with our current forecasts (112 MEUR and 28%). However, achieving these targets requires successful strategy execution, especially in the semiconductor sector, where we believe the company has realistic prerequisites for success. Be that as it may, in light of last year's weak performance, the company still has a lot to prove regarding accelerating growth before the stock market prices in a scenario consistent with its targets. The new targets also leave the expected development for the coming years quite open, and we aim to get more color on this during the day. We will comment further on Canatu's strategy and the content of the Capital Markets Day after the event. Initially, the new targets do not necessitate significant changes to our estimates, with the exception of the 2026 investment level. However, we will also assess this aspect during the day.

Semiconductor sector remains top growth driver

Canatu's strategy is centered on a carbon nanotube (CNT)-based technology platform, whose commercial potential is currently strongest in the semiconductor industry. The company aims to become a leading supplier of CNT pellicle technology for EUV lithography, estimating the semiconductor sector's market potential to reach 1.5 BEUR by 2030. A key driver of growth is artificial intelligence, which is increasing demand for advanced chips. This increases the adoption of more efficient EUV scanners, which are increasingly utilizing Canatu's CNT pellicles made from carbon nanotubes.

Canatu provided assumptions for its revenue target, which will help in monitoring the progress of the company's equity story. For the reactor business, the company revealed it aims for an installed base of 10-20 reactors by the end of the strategy period (2030: Inderes' assumption 17). Additionally, CNT is expected to become the dominant material in pellicles, with at least 50% of EUV-exposed wafer processes utilizing CNT pellicles. The average lifespan of CNT pellicles is estimated to be 15,000 wafers per pellicle in 2030. Canatu estimates that its strong competitive advantages support its pricing power, which we consider credible in light of current developments. As expected, Canatu did not disclose details in its assumptions regarding, for example, the pricing of new reactors or recurring revenue (royalties and consumables). In light of the assumed installed base of reactors by 2030 and our current forecasts, royalties from the production of a single CNT pellicle would appear to be significant (several thousands or even over 10 TEUR), in line with our assumptions.

Investment level peaks this year

Canatu provided more detailed visibility into its investment needs for the coming years, and the company estimates total investments in 2026 to be 14-18 MEUR. This clearly exceeds the previous average level of around 5-6 MEUR and our current year forecast (6.5 MEUR). The investment peak is mainly due to investments in a second factory and the PELMIS EUV pellicle inspection system, whose delivery was postponed from 2025 to 2026. After this, investments are expected to return to an average annual level of 5-6 MEUR. Canatu's strong net cash position (2025: 90 MEUR) enables the company's investments well.

Achieving Canatu's growth targets may require increasing the number of employees by an average of 10–35 full-time equivalents per year, depending especially on the development of new business. This is in line with our estimates, and if the company's growth materializes, the targeted EBIT margin of 25-30% is realistic to achieve.

Automotive industry, diagnostics, and new applications offer long-term optionality

While the semiconductor sector is the most important driver in the coming years and the mid-term, the automotive industry and diagnostics are important for long-term growth. In the automotive industry, the company is focusing on ramping up mass production of ADAS camera heaters and aims for at least one customer market launch in windshield heating and/or solar cell applications by 2030.

In diagnostics, the company's roadmap is more moderate, with the launch of the first commercial product (a testosterone test) planned for 2030. This reinforces our view of diagnostics primarily as a growth option for the next decade.

We believe the company's disciplined approach to New Business Development is the right way to leverage the broad application potential of CNT technology. Key operational targets for 2030 include bringing the first new product to mass production and building 2–5 new product categories with a strong and defensible intellectual property position.