Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/06/2025 at 08:50 am EET

Source: Inderes

CapMan released slightly better-than-expected Q3 results this morning. The earnings were in line with expectations, and the important management fees grew slightly more than we expected. New sales are still cumbersome, but there are initial signs of a pick-up in the market. Preliminarily, we see very limited revision needs in our estimates on the back of the Q3 results.

Revenue slightly better than expected

CapMan’s Q3 revenue increased by 21% to 15.4 MEUR, mainly due to the acquisitions of Midstar and CAERUS. Management fees increased slightly faster than we expected by 13% (Q3’25e: 10%), and we estimate that this difference is explained by Midstar’s fees. Fees from asset management were also higher than our expectations (2.9 vs. 2.3 MEUR). As expected, there was hardly any carried interest income for the quarter, and carried interest income was 0.2 MEUR. Overall, the fee mix was somewhat better than expected.

Assets under management, driven by the CAERUS acquisition, grew clearly to 7.1 billion. The level was slightly below our estimate of 7.3 billion, and according to our calculations, the company's new sales in Q3 have been very low. In addition, several exits have reduced the assets under management.

Earnings were good as expected

The earnings lines were very well in line with our estimates. Adjusted EBIT was 8.5 MEUR, and it improved significantly from the miserable comparison period. Fee income, critical for the stock's performance, was slightly better than our expectations due to a better revenue mix. Investment income was fully in line with our expectations, and for the full year, investment income has developed well. EPS was slightly below our expectations due to higher-than-expected financing costs and the minority interest in earnings.

Light at the end of the tunnel for the outlook

In its outlook, the company expectedly stated that the fundraising market situation has improved somewhat, but remains challenging. As a result, the company postponed the first closing of Nordic Real Estate IV to 2026. Similarly, the first closing of the new Forest Fund (EFF IV) will still happen in Q4, which was positive news for us. The company also officially announced that it has started preparations for fundraising for the Infra 3 fund. The company will have four large funds fundraising simultaneously next year (the three previously mentioned and CAERUS), and success in next year's fundraising will determine the success of the strategy period.

Due to a better-than-expected development in fee income, the company also reiterated its guidance and expects fee income and assets under management to grow from the comparison period. The growth in assets under management will be brisk due to corporate acquisitions, and there are also good prerequisites for growth in fee income if the first closing of the new forest fund can be completed this year.