CapMan Q4'25 flash comment: Report weaker than expected, no surprises in outlook

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/12/2026 at 08:59 am EET

Source: Inderes

CapMan released  its Q4 results this morning, which were weaker than we expected. The strong development of management fees was a clear highlight of the report, but high costs and investment income that fell short of expectations weighed on the result, leaving it clearly below expectations. The dividend proposal also fell short of our expectations. The outlook for 2026 was in line with our expectations. This year is critical for CapMan, as the company must succeed in fundraising for several flagship funds. Our preliminary assessment is that the report will not lead to material estimate changes.

Revenue exceeded our estimate, driven by management fees

CapMan’s Q4 revenue increased to 20.5 MEUR (Q4’24: 13.9 MEUR), exceeding our forecast of 19.7 MEUR. Management fees (15.2 MEUR) developed significantly better than we expected, and this was the absolute highlight of the report. Assets under management (AUM) rose to 7.2 BEUR at the end of the year, a new record high, but slightly below our estimates. The first closing of the newest forest fund appears to be of a very moderate size. The capital of real estate funds grew by 200 MEUR during the review period, and if this is explained by new sales, it would be an excellent performance. In other asset classes (PE, Infra, Wealth Management), capital decreased more than we expected due to exits. The company recorded carried interest income of around 3.8 MEUR, roughly in line with our expectations.

Cost level pushed profitability below our estimates

Comparable EBIT was 6.7 MEUR, which was clearly below our 9.6 MEUR estimate. The miss is explained by significantly higher costs than expected and lower-than-expected returns from the investment portfolio. The very high cost level appears to be partly explained by fees related to Kokoelmakeskus' carried interest income. However, the development of the cost level requires further clarification in today's earnings call. The strategically important fee income improved from the comparison period to 0.87 MEUR (Q4'24: 0.39 MEUR), but the level is still modest relative to the company's long-term potential. In the lower lines of the income statement, interest expenses were higher than our expectations, which weighed on EPS, pushing it clearly below our estimates (EUR 0.02 vs. EUR 0.04).

Dividend proposal below expectations, outlook as expected

CapMan's Board of Directors proposes a total dividend of EUR 0.12 per share for 2025, to be distributed in two installments. We had expected a symbolic dividend increase due to the company's strong balance sheet, and in this sense, the dividend decrease is a disappointment. The company likely wants to ensure its financial flexibility if it needs to make significant investments in its own funds to accelerate fundraising. In Q4, the company made an investment commitment of 10 MEUR to the new forest fund.

There were no major surprises in the outlook. The company estimates that both assets under management and fee income will grow this year. The company has four flagship funds (forest, infrastructure, real estate, and real estate debt) fundraising simultaneously in 2026, and the company emphasizes in its report that the focus for the current year is on successful fundraising. If fundraising is successful, CapMan's fee income will certainly scale up significantly, and conversely, if fundraising falls short, the entire investment case would deteriorate substantially.