CapMan Q4'25 preview: Fundraising must be successful in 2026

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/05/2026 at 07:00 am EET

Source: Inderes

CapMan publishes its Q3 results on Thursday at 8:00 am EET. We expect good earnings from the company, driven by investment income in addition to carried interest income, which has been absent for a long time. However, the most important takeaway from the report concerns the outlook for 2026 fundraising, as the company must raise significant new capital for its spearhead funds to achieve its strategic goals. The company’s earnings release can be watched starting at 9:30 am EET here.

Revenue is supported by carried interest income

We expect CapMan's Q4 revenue to grow significantly from the comparison period to 19.7 MEUR. Management fees will increase by 12%, supported by the corporate acquisitions (CAERUS and Midstar) carried out in H1. Revenue will also receive support from carried interest income for the first time in a long time, as an older real estate fund (Kokoelmakeskus) was sold in October. We expect assets under management to grow only marginally from the Q3 level, as new sales remain gloomy. The company completed the first closing of a new forest fund (Dasos European Forest Fund IV) at the end of December, but we estimate that its size remained modest. In addition, we expect only small sales to open-end funds and wealth management, and higher sales would be a clear positive surprise.

Earnings are strong, but the dividend involves uncertainty

We expect CapMan's adjusted EBIT to increase to 9.6 MEUR. Earnings are particularly supported by carried interest income from the Kokoelmakeskus fund, which we estimate to be 4 MEUR. We estimate the result from investment activities to be at a good level of 4.6 MEUR. We expect the fee income, which is critical for the share's valuation, to be at a subdued level of 0.8 MEUR due to variable fees in late 2025. The company has not revised its guidance for fee income growth (2024: 6.9 MEUR), and thus, fee income must be at least 0.5 MEUR for the guidance to be met. The development of the cost level is again under close scrutiny, as success in this area is critical for earnings improvement in the coming years.

CapMan aims to pay an increasing dividend over time and to pay out at least 70% of adjusted earnings from investment income. In addition, the company can pay out cash flow from investments, depending on the situation. Adjusted for investment income, earnings will be very modest this year, but at the same time, the company's balance sheet will remain very strong due to the CaPS sale at the end of 2024. We believe that the company will increase its dividend by one cent to EUR 0.15. However, we see a clear risk associated with the dividend, especially as the company will likely have to make significant investments in its new flagship funds itself.

Fundraising outlook at the core of the report

By far the most important aspect of the report is management's comments and outlook on fundraising in 2026. This year, CapMan will simultaneously have several large spearhead funds in fundraising, such as Nordic Real Estate IV, Infra III, CAERUS, and Dasos IV, and the success of these fundraising efforts is critical for the company's strategy period targets. The market situation has shown slight signs of improvement in H2, and we expect management's comments to be cautiously positive. Among individual products, the greatest interest lies in Nordic Real Estate IV, whose first close has already been postponed. We expect CapMan to provide similar guidance for 2026 as for 2025, meaning the company will likely estimate growth in both assets under management and fee income.