Source: Inderes

 Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/6/2026 at 7:20 am EEST.

Componenta will publish its Q1 report on Friday, May 8. We expect revenue to have continued its growth, supported by a healthy order book. We estimate that profitability improved from the comparison period, even though high electricity prices have, in our estimation, weighed slightly on margins in the early part of the year. In the report, our attention will be drawn to how the company views the demand outlook for the current fiscal year, which may have changed during the event-rich Q1'26 in terms of its business environment.

A healthy order book supports the growth forecast

At the end of 2025, the order book stood at 19.6 MEUR, providing a strong foundation for the beginning of FY2026. We forecast Componenta's revenue to have grown by 17% in Q1 to 33.8 MEUR (Q1'25: 28.8 MEUR). For the top line, growth expectations are focused on the defense equipment industry and the energy industry, but we also expect the machine building industry to have remained strong. In its Q1 report, Componenta typically does not disclose the breakdown of revenue by industry, which the company will likely shed light on only in its H1'26 report.

We expect Componenta's reported 2-month binding order book to have remained at just under 20 MEUR, the level at which Q1'26 began. In the order book, we also expect the defense and energy industry segments to support development, while a clearer market recovery is still not visible in the agricultural machinery segment.

Electricity prices weigh on profitability in Q1

We expect Componenta's adjusted EBIT to have increased to 1.5 MEUR in Q1 (Q1'25: 1.1 MEUR). We forecast EBITDA to have settled at 2.9 MEUR, corresponding to a margin of 8.5%. We expect the high price of electricity to have weighed slightly on profitability in the early part of the year. However, the impact of electricity prices on profitability depends on the production focus (foundry vs. machining), which introduces a slight element of surprise to operating profitability. However, we understand that Componenta's contract structure is indexed for raw material and energy costs, which allows costs to be passed on to customer prices with a delay. We estimate that the higher costs from the beginning of the year will be passed on to prices, thus supporting margins accordingly in Q2. On the lower lines, we expect slightly lower financing costs than in the comparison period (-0.45 MEUR) and taxes of -0.17 MEUR due to a profitable result. However, taxes have no cash flow impact, as the company has tax-deductible losses it can utilize. As a sum of these factors, we expect reported EPS to rise to EUR 0.08 (Q1'25: EUR 0.05). In connection with the preview, we revised our cost structure forecasts related to the cost burden of electricity prices, which had a positive impact of 0.2 MEUR on our EBITDA forecast.

Guidance relies on pick-up later in the year and strong order book

For 2026, Componenta guides that revenue and adjusted EBIT will improve from the previous year (2025: revenue 115.7 MEUR and adjusted EBIT 4.3 MEUR). Our full-year estimates (revenue 131.8 MEUR and adjusted EBIT 5.7 MEUR) are clearly above the comparison period and in line with the company's guidance. While the demand outlook for the defense equipment industry and the energy industry is very strong, there is uncertainty regarding the pace of recovery in other segments, such as machine building and agricultural machinery, as the economic outlook weakened during Q1'26 due to the Middle East conflict.

Among the customer segments, the Q1 earnings season for the machine building sector has not yet changed the growth outlook for this segment. The CEMA index, which describes the development of the European agricultural machinery market, turned weaker in April, suggesting that the segment's recovery continues to be delayed.