Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/30/2026 at 9:15 am EET.

Componenta published its Q3 business review this morning, with profitability clearly above our expectations. Revenue grew slightly more than we expected, and the order book rose well above our estimate. The company reiterated the guidance it narrowed on October 22, which now appears to imply softer Q4 profitability. Our full-year earnings estimate is above the midpoint of the guidance range, and following a strong Q3, our current-year estimate faces upward rather than downward pressure. On results day, our focus will be on the drivers of Q4 profitability, which the guidance implies will remain subdued, and on the growth and profitability outlook for 2027–2028, which matters more for the investment story than the current year.

Revenue growth slightly ahead of our expectations

Q3 revenue grew by 23% to 30.5 MEUR, slightly above our 29.7 MEUR estimate. According to the company, January–September growth was driven by higher sales volumes from new business, the ramp-up of new components, and a slight market recovery. The company also reported the January–September breakdown by customer industry, confirming that growth was driven by the defense and energy industries, as we expected. Defense rose to 17% of revenue (1–9/2025: 13%) and energy to 24% (23%), while machine building fell to 33% (35%) and agricultural machinery to 16% (18%).

Profitability clearly ahead of our expectations

EBITDA rose to 2.3 MEUR in Q3 (Q3'26e: 1.5 MEUR), and adjusted EBITDA of 2.5 MEUR corresponded to a margin of 8.3% (Q3'25: 7.9%). This is an excellent performance for Q3, which is typically weighed down by summer holidays and maintenance shutdowns. After the guidance update came in below our previous estimates, we had expected profitability to fall below the comparison period, but the margin rose year-on-year. According to the company, the profitability improvement in January–September was mainly driven by higher sales volumes and improvements in operations, productivity, and quality. In Q3, the company says productivity was held back by the ramp-up of new products and by capacity and resource investments to prepare for growing demand in the energy and defense sectors. ERP implementation costs of 0.2 MEUR were adjusted out, in line with our estimate. Adjusted EBIT rose to 1.1 MEUR (Q3'26e: 0.2 MEUR), with no major surprises in financial items or taxes relative to our estimates. By our calculation, Q3 EPS was ~EUR 0.03 (Q3'26e: EUR -0.04). Cash flow from operating activities was 2.8 MEUR in Q3 (Q3'25: -3.5 MEUR), and net interest-bearing debt fell to 0.3 MEUR at the end of September.

The order book clearly exceeded our forecast

Componenta’s two-month binding order book rose to 25.1 MEUR at the end of September (Q3'25: 18.2 MEUR), clearly above our 21.0 MEUR estimate. According to the CEO, the 38% growth was supported by the market recovery and Componenta’s higher market share. He described the order book as exceptionally strong relative to the company’s own expectations, partly due to the timing of certain deliveries at the start of Q4. Relative to the order book, our Q4 revenue estimate of 35.7 MEUR looks moderate, as Q4 revenue has in previous years been significantly higher than the end-of-September order book. The order book thus provides a good starting point for Q4 revenue, even though part of the growth reflects delivery timing. The report puts slight upward pressure on our revenue forecast.

The guidance leaves a moderate earnings level for Q4

Componenta reiterated the guidance it narrowed on October 22, under which 2026 revenue is expected to be 135–138 MEUR and adjusted EBIT 7.6–8.4 MEUR (2025: 115.7 and 4.3 MEUR). With January–September adjusted EBIT at 6.4 MEUR, the guidance implies Q4 adjusted EBIT of 1.2–2.0 MEUR (Q4'25: 1.4 MEUR), against our forecast of 2.7 MEUR. In light of the guidance, Q3’s strength thus appears to have come partly at the expense of Q4. Given the strong order book at the end of September, however, we see the guidance as conservative for Q4, and we expect the company to discuss this dynamic in today’s Q3 webcast. On the other hand, the ramp-ups and capacity investments that held back productivity in Q3 may also weigh on Q4. Our full-year adjusted EBIT estimate of 8.2 MEUR is above the midpoint of the guidance range.

Looking further ahead, the CEO described the company’s outlook as very positive, driven particularly by strong demand in the energy and defense equipment industries and improved visibility. In energy, the company is working even more closely with customers on future capacity reservations, and in defense, several new investments began their gradual ramp-up in Q3. In agricultural machinery, by contrast, the company is preparing for only very modest growth in 2027 as well, and according to the company, weak demand there is reflected in particular in the foundries’ relatively low capacity utilization. In the webcast, we will look for indications on the continuation of ramp-up and capacity investment costs, the drivers of Q4 profitability, and the growth outlook for 2027, and we will return to our estimates in Monday’s report.