Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/27/2026 at 8:15 am EET.

Componenta will publish its Q3 business review on Friday, October 30. We expect revenue to have grown by ~20%, supported by a strong order book, but profitability to have fallen from a strong comparison period. The company’s guidance, updated on October 22, implies H2 profitability above the comparison period but below our previous forecasts. We estimate that the gap to our previous forecasts is concentrated in Q3, typically the company’s weakest quarter due to summer holidays and maintenance shutdowns. In the report, our focus will be on comments on profitability drivers and the 2027 outlook, as the narrowed guidance leaves little room for surprises this year.

The order book continues to support growth

Componenta entered the seasonally quiet Q3 with an order book of 17.4 MEUR, up 22% year-on-year. We forecast organic revenue growth of 20% to 29.7 MEUR (Q3'25: 24.8 MEUR). In our forecast, growth continues to be driven particularly by demand in the defense and energy industries, while agricultural machinery has likely remained a drag. We forecast the two-month binding order book to have risen to 21.0 MEUR at the end of September (Q3'25: 18.2 MEUR). The order book is usually the most important leading indicator for the next quarter, but this time it is unlikely to hold surprises, as the company knew the end-of-September position when it narrowed its guidance on October 22. We expect the very strong organic growth of the early part of the year to slow in Q4, as comparisons become tougher.

Summer quarter weighs on profitability

We expect Componenta’s adjusted EBITDA to have fallen to 1.7 MEUR in Q3, a margin of 5.8% (Q3'25: 1.9 MEUR and 7.9%). Q3 is typically the company’s weakest quarter, as summer holidays and production line maintenance shutdowns weigh on profitability. In addition, we estimate that headcount added ahead of volumes (736 at the end of June, +9% y/y) is weighing on the cost structure. The company did not break down the profitability drivers when it updated its guidance, but Q3 was already known to it at the time, and we estimate that Q3 will weigh on H2 profitability more than we previously anticipated. We forecast reported EBITDA of 1.5 MEUR, as our forecast includes 0.25 MEUR in ERP project costs, which, like the company, we treat as non-recurring. After depreciation of ~1.5 MEUR, we forecast adjusted EBIT of 0.2 MEUR (Q3'25: 0.6 MEUR) and reported EBIT of around zero. With financial expenses of ~0.45 MEUR, in line with the comparison period, we expect reported EPS to have dipped slightly into negative territory (EUR -0.04, Q3'25: EUR 0.01).

Guidance relies on a strong year-end

On October 22, Componenta updated its guidance and now expects 2026 revenue of 135–138 MEUR and adjusted EBIT of 7.6–8.4 MEUR (2025: 115.7 and 4.3 MEUR). In our company update published alongside the guidance narrowing, we lowered our profitability estimates.  Our current-year forecasts (revenue of 136 MEUR and adjusted EBIT of 8.2 MEUR) sit at the lower end of the range for revenue and in the upper half for profitability. Our forecast requires Q4 revenue of ~36 MEUR and adjusted EBIT of 2.7 MEUR (Q4'25: 31.2 and 1.4 MEUR), corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.7% (Q4'25: 8.9%). When updating the guidance, the CEO highlighted a clear increase in demand, and the revenue guidance was already in line with our estimates, so our more moderate profitability estimate does not reflect demand. Statistics Finland’s data on new orders in the metal industry, which continued to grow over the summer, and the order books of listed customer companies give an indication of the direction of the overall market. At the end of June, the order books of long-cycle customers such as Wärtsilä, KONE, Konecranes, and Metso were significantly higher than a year earlier. These are only directional indicators, however, and as Componenta is clearly smaller than its customers, its performance may deviate significantly from them. Agricultural machinery remains weaker, with the CEMA index, which measures business sentiment in the European industry, falling in October to its lowest level in 20 months. According to the survey, sentiment also weakened in tractors, which are key to Componenta. The demand outlook for the Nordics stands out positively in the survey, however. For the full year, we forecast a significant improvement in profitability, and in the Q3 report, we expect the company to comment on profitability drivers and the 2027 outlook.