Automatic translation: Originally published in Danish 05/11/2026, 06:00 GMT. Give feedback here.

Danish Aerospace and Defence (DADC) released its Q3 2026 trade update yesterday after the market closed. Total revenue incl. other operating income was DKK 11.0 million YTD, and EBITDA was DKK -4.9 million. According to the company, both figures are lower than expected. By comparison, revenue incl. other operating income was DKK 8.3 million in the first half of the year with an EBITDA of DKK -2.0 million. Based on our calculations, this corresponds to revenue of ~DKK 2.7 million and an EBITDA of ~DKK -2.9 million for Q3 in isolation.

Guidance for 2026 is reiterated with total revenue incl. other operating income of DKK 16–18 million and EBITDA of ~DKK -6 to -4 million.

These are the expectations published by the company on October 30 in company announcement no. 91, where guidance was downgraded from DKK 18–20 million in revenue and EBITDA of DKK -2 to 0 million.

In our view, the reiteration of guidance should be seen in light of the fact that the range was reset just five days prior to the trade update, at which point the company must be assumed to have had the quarter's figures in hand. This reduces the risk within the range, but does not change the fact that, based on our calculations, the reiterated guidance implies revenue of DKK 5–7 million and EBITDA of between DKK -1.1 million and DKK 0.9 million in Q4 – clearly the strongest quarter of the year and a marked improvement from the ~DKK -2.9 million in Q3.

In the same announcement, the company published preliminary guidance for 2027 with revenue of DKK 23–27 million and EBITDA of DKK 1–4 million, which is referenced in the trade update.

Operationally, DADC states that the proto-flight model of the new E4D multifunctional exercise equipment continues to be used by several crew members aboard the International Space Station in ESA’s Columbus module.

In addition, the company has extended its contract with NASA via Amentum US for technical maintenance and support services for the ISS Teal CEVIS exercise cycle. The extension marks 25 years of uninterrupted support for CEVIS on the space station, and the company's work on exercise equipment for NASA dates back to 1993, corresponding to 33 years of continuous collaboration.

In addition, DADC has entered into a contract with the European Space Agency for the development and manufacturing of a prototype of critical components for a new mobile Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP) system. The prototype is to be tested alongside existing exercise equipment from DADC. LBNP is used on the space station to prepare astronauts for their return to Earth. The company also states that it is continuing its close dialogue with several commercial American and European customers in manned spaceflight and defense regarding partnerships and the delivery of equipment.

The extension of the CEVIS agreement and the LBNP contract confirm the technical position with both NASA and ESA, but are too small to move earnings in the short term.

The investment case is thus unchanged from our latest update: option value in NASA's CLD award in spring 2027 and in the first defense contract, rather than an imminent earnings turnaround. With the preliminary 2027 guidance, the market now has a concrete figure to measure that turnaround against, but it still relies on orders that have not yet been secured.

Today at 9:30 AM, together with CEO Thomas A.E. Andersen, we will review the trade update and the outlook for the rest of the year, and you will also have the opportunity to ask questions.

Focus areas will include the order situation, the basis for the preliminary 2027 guidance, and NASA's commercial low Earth orbit destinations (CLD) procurement, where the bid deadline is expected in November 2026 and the award in spring 2027.

Sign up for the event here:

https://www.inderes.dk/videos/dadc-praesentation-af-handelsopdatering-for-q3-2026

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Danish Aerospace Company for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 7:00 AM, November 5, 2026