Source: Inderes & Bloomberg (3 forecasts, 8/3/2026)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/14/2026 at 9:16 am EEST.

Exel Composites published its Q2 report this morning, with all key figures heftily beating our forecasts. Based on the comments, the development was partly driven by customers' accelerated delivery requests. Reflecting this, the company removed the assumption of growth being weighted towards the second half of the year from its guidance. However, the guidance, which indicates significant earnings growth for the full year, remained unchanged as per our expectations, and the market situation also appears to be largely at a high level.

Revenue significantly exceeded expectations

In Q2, Exel's revenue grew by a whopping 40% to 34.6 MEUR, clearly exceeding our and the narrow consensus estimates. According to the company's comments, the development was supported by customers' accelerated delivery requests (in our estimation, related to conductor core orders) along with strong execution. Additionally, growth was driven by increased volumes at the Indian plant, enabled by expanded production capacity. Accordingly, the Energy customer segment's revenue more than doubled from the comparison period. The Other customer industry (+53% y/y) grew strongly, driven by the defense industry, and Buildings and infrastructure (+32% y/y) also grew at a brisk pace. Transportation also achieved growth (+8% y/y), while Industry (-16% y/y) was the only segment to decline. Quarterly fluctuations within customer industries are typical. Reflecting the overall picture discussed above, the Customized Solutions business unit grew by 30% and Industrial Solutions by as much as 82%, in line with the volume growth of the Indian factory.

Exel's order intake (34.5 MEUR, +22% y/y) also saw strong growth. Order intake continued its positive trend and remained at a good level, considering that no announced orders were placed with the company in the early part of the year. The company's order book remained at a record high (99 MEUR, +111% y/y), providing strong support for the future. However, the structure of the order book is clearly longer than historically, due to several multi-year framework agreements.

Operational earnings development exceeded expectations

The company's adjusted EBIT more than doubled to 2.5 MEUR, significantly exceeding both our and consensus estimates. According to the company, the development was supported by larger deliveries and higher utilization rates. In addition, it had reacted quickly to cost pressures and continued cost discipline. Relative to our forecasts, the earnings performance in the first half was also supported by a material margin that was clearly higher than we expected and also higher compared to historical levels (Q1'26-Q2'26: 63.5–63.7% vs. 2021–2025: 53–61%), while the cost structure was slightly higher in other respects. We estimate this was driven by a favorable sales mix and, in some parts, higher-than-usual pricing power due to strong demand. Overall, the development strengthened our confidence in the effectiveness of the strategic measures taken as volume growth materialized. Further down the P&L, net financial expenses were significantly lower than our expectations, which we believe was influenced by exchange rate changes on intercompany loans. In contrast, taxes were higher than our forecasts. However, the reported EPS clearly exceeded our forecast, in line with the operational development.

Earnings guidance for the current year was reiterated, but the H2-weighted outlook was removed

Exel unsurprisingly reiterated its guidance for the current year and expects its revenue (2025: 103 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT (2025: 3.2 MEUR) to increase significantly from last year. However, the company removed from its guidance the expectation that growth would be more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year. We estimate this reflects early delivery requests seen in H1. We also raised this possibility in our pre-commentary, among other things. There is uncertainty regarding the underlying assumptions of the verbal guidance, but based on historical trends, we estimate that significant revenue growth indicates at least double-digit annual growth (the exact lower limit is unknown). Historically, significant earnings growth has been defined as at least over 40% (2019: +43%). Before the report, we expected the company's revenue to rise to 125 MEUR this year (compared to H1'26: 64.8 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT to 7.7 MEUR (4.0 MEUR). According to our preliminary assessment, we see only minor pressure for changes in our full-year estimates, reflecting the revised guidance and assuming H2 will be broadly similar to H1. However, we are still awaiting more detailed comments from the company on the outlook for the rest of the year and the near future. Overall, the market situation appears to be good, especially in the Energy sector and in applications related to the defense industry.