Translation: Original published in Finnish on 9/23/2026 at 7:30 am EEST.

On Tuesday, Digia issued a profit warning, as we had anticipated, in which the company lowered its profitability guidance for the current year. The company now expects EBITA to decline year-on-year, whereas previously it was expected to remain at least at last year's level. The revenue guidance remained unchanged, meaning it is expected to grow from last year. The profit warning did not come as a surprise to us, as we had already anticipated in connection with the Q2 report that the company would be forced to lower its profit guidance following a soft start to the year. Therefore, the release does not cause any immediate pressure to change our forecasts, as our expectations were already in line with the new guidance.

Reasons behind the warning reflect the challenges seen in Q2

According to Digia, profitability for the remainder of the year will be weighed down by uncertainty in the operating environment and previously announced challenging projects. The company stated that customer investment caution continued in the third quarter, which is in line with comments heard from several companies in the IT services sector. However, companies with a favorable demand trend can also be found in the sector. In addition, the company continues to make investments in line with its strategy to renew its operations and services. Although Digia expects EBITA to strengthen in the second half of the year, we estimate that the lag from the early part of the year and continued investments made achieving the original earnings guidance too challenging. We believe that the company's decision to stick to its strategic investments despite the difficult market is justified from the perspective of long-term competitiveness.

Our estimates were already within the new guidance range

We had already expected Digia's earnings for the current year to decline year-on-year prior to the guidance downgrade. Our full-year forecast for adjusted EBIT is 20.3 MEUR (2025: 22.9 MEUR), which marks an 11% decline. We forecast reported EBITA at 19.4 MEUR (2025: 21.3 MEUR), which corresponds to a 9% decrease. As for revenue, we forecast 1% growth to 219 MEUR (2025: 217 MEUR), which is right at the lower end of the company's reiterated revenue guidance. Since the warning was expected and the market challenges were already well known to us, the big picture of our view on Digia as a quality earnings compounder remains unchanged. We justify this with the relatively mild profit warning and the good earnings level of past years, even though the market has been challenging. We still consider the company's risk profile to be among the lowest in the sector, and a single expected profit warning in a weak market cycle does not change the long-term investment story.