Gabriel: EBIT guidance upgraded with strong execution in continuing operations and stabilising FurnMaster

Gabriel upgrades EBIT guidance and narrows its revenue guidance to the top-end, for continuing operations 2024/25e (1 October 2024 - 30 September 2025), following strong execution in its continuing Fabrics and SampleMaster segments. 

Continuing operations revenue guidance is narrowed to MDKK 510-520 million, up from the previous range of MDKK 495–520, following 7% revenue growth y/y 9 months YTD, and +8% y/y over the first 10 months YTD. The midpoint guidance reflects +6.5% growth y/y and may still be on the conservative side. Ten months YTD, Gabriel has realised revenue of MDKK 433.1m in its continuing operations.

The revenue growth has significantly boosted margins with EBIT for 2024/25e now expected at MDKK 35-40m, up from MDKK 25-35 previously, and from MDKK 19.7 in 2023/24. The midpoint guidance now reflects a margin of 7.3%, up from 4.1% in 2023/24, and an absolute EBIT growth of 90% y/y. After the first ten months YTD, Gabriel has realised an EBIT of MDKK 35.7 from MDKK 13.1 in the same period last year. The discontinuing FurnMaster operations, which remain for sale, are reported to have realised a pre-tax profit of MDKK -4.2 9M YTD, implying a return to positive pre-tax profit in Q3. The latest upgrade builds on an earlier upgrade from 25 June 2025.

HC Andersen Capital’s latest estimates are for full year 2024/25e group revenue (continuing and discontinuing operations) of MDKK 934 (+2.4% y/y), with a group EBIT of MDKK 29 (3.1% margin). Compared to HCA expectations, the updated guidance shows slightly stronger growth and margin expansion in the continuing operations, and a surprise return to profitability in the discontinuing operations in Q3 2024/25. 

Overall, the upgrade solidifies the rebound in continuing operations and clearly also the recovery in the discontinuing FurnMaster operations. While we still expect that furniture market conditions are challenging, a point echoed by Gabriel’s management, the positive momentum in continuing operations suggests market share growth, while a stabilisation/recovery in FurnMaster may ease the sales process. 

We look ahead to the full Q3 2024 results expected on Thursday, 28 August 2025, for further details regarding the prospective strengthening case for Gabriel post-FurnMaster divestment. You can also join the presentation of the Q3 2024/25 results with Gabriel CEO Anders Hedegaard Petersen the following day at 08:00 to ask questions and hear more about the year YTD. Link: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/gabriel-praesentation-af-regnskabet-for-q3-202425

Disclaimer: HCA receives payment from Gabriel for a research and corporate visibility subscription agreement. /Philip Coombes 14 August 16:27