Gabriel Holding Q4’24-25 preview: Positioning for continued execution in 2025/26e

Gabriel has pre-announced its preliminary FY’24/25 results ahead of the annual report on 20 November 2025, confirming stronger-than-expected performance in the core continuing operations, while the FurnMaster unit again weighs on the group result. The preliminary figures show continuing operations revenue of DKK 516m (+6.8% y/y) and EBIT of DKK 44m (8.5% margin), exceeding the latest guidance of DKK 35-40m. At the same time, the pre-announcement reveals a deeper-than-expected full-year EBIT loss of DKK 16m in FurnMaster, underlining the operational and strategic challenges in the discontinuing operations as the carve-out process continues. The early release of results reduces uncertainty around the turnaround in the core business but also reinforces known risks tied to FurnMaster’s performance and valuation.

Core business supports confidence in the turnaround, but FurnMaster remains a challenge

We expect the upcoming annual report to provide further detail on the performance in Fabrics and SampleMaster, where Gabriel has effectively leveraged existing capacity and cost efficiencies to convert solid topline growth (+6.8% y/y) into meaningful margin expansion. Full-year EBIT for continuing operations for 2024/25 was MDKK 44 with an 8.5% EBIT margin, up from a 4.1% margin in 2023/24. The result was also above the latest company full-year EBIT guidance interval of MDKK 35-40 and HCA’s estimate of MDKK 43m, and significantly above the original guidance of MDKK 20-30 outlined in connection with the 2023/24 annual report.

With continued capacity to maximise operating leverage, ongoing revenue growth in the continuing operations will be key to unlocking further margin expansion into 2025/26. The annual report and updated guidance will provide insight into the sustainability of this growth, particularly as it has been achieved despite weak market conditions. Market headwinds remain, including the recent 25% US tariff on upholstered furniture (excluding the EU, UK, and countries with stand-alone agreements), ongoing US–Mexico tariff negotiations, the acquisition of Gabriel customer Steelcase by HNI Corp, and lingering weakness in global real estate markets. Gabriel’s ability to grow revenue despite these headwinds suggests it gained market-share in 2025/26 and improves the market position going into 2025/26.

FurnMaster weakness continues to challenge the carve-out

The preliminary FY’24/25 announcement also disclosed a full-year EBIT for FurnMaster of MDKK -16, implying a negative Q4 FurnMaster EBIT of approximately MDKK -9. Greater detail will be needed to understand the Q4 deterioration in FurnMaster’s EBIT. A decline driven by underlying operational challenges may complicate the ongoing carve-out process, whereas Q4 one-offs related to restructuring or advisory expenses would suggest a non-structural setback. FurnMaster remains a key uncertainty for Gabriel. However, despite the negative result, increasing profitability in continuing operations has supported debt repayment and reduced gearing, which lowers pressure to divest FurnMaster at an unfavourable valuation. We therefore assume that the carve-out timeline will extend into 2025/26 and that divesting the Mexican subsidiary will be the main focus, especially given Gabriel’s communication of strong execution in the European FurnMaster business during 2024/25.

European markets are a potential stabilizer in the year ahead

Gabriel enters FY’25/26 with a more favourable market backdrop in Europe, supported by lower interest rates across the region. While growth and consumer confidence remain subdued, Gabriel has demonstrated strong execution despite a challenging market backdrop in both continuing and discontinuing operations in Europe. The macroeconomic environment is still sluggish, but with a more stable US tariff regime and Germany’s large fiscal package scheduled to ramp up in 2026, conditions may become more supportive, despite still being weak. Gabriel’s guidance for the year ahead will be key to understanding the durability of the growth achieved in 2024/25.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Gabriel Holding for a DigitalIR/corporate visibility and research agreement. / Philip Coombes 16:40 18.11.2025