Gabriel Holding will report its Q3 2025/26 results on 26 August. We expect revenue from continuing operations to be up 4.5% y/y, but the growth reflects a soft comparison base rather than a sequential recovery, as our estimate is essentially flat on Q2. We look for only a marginal improvement in the EBIT margin. Our attention is primarily directed to the FurnMaster divestment, for which we seek clarity on the closing timetable and net proceeds, which we expect to be applied to reducing the group's financial gearing. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation and target price of DKK 270 ahead of the report.

Q3 growth rests on a soft comparison base rather than a sequential recovery

We forecast Q3 revenue from continuing operations of MDKK 134, corresponding to growth of 4.5% y/y (Q3'25: MDKK 129), but we would caution against reading this as a recovery. Our estimate is essentially flat on the MDKK 134.1 reported in Q2, and the growth rate is a function of a weak comparison quarter. Management attributed the 3% decline in Q2 to weaker market conditions in Europe and Asia rather than to timing, which in our view leaves limited reason to expect a catch-up in deliveries. The investments across the sales organization should support the trajectory, with key account managers deepening relationships with leading furniture manufacturers and field sales managers working upstream with architects and designers from the 30 global showrooms. Still, we expect the contribution to remain modest at this stage.

Margin expansion continues on modestly higher volumes

We estimate Q3 EBITDA of MDKK 21.5 (Q3'25: MDKK 20.7) and EBIT of MDKK 11.5 (Q3'25: MDKK 10.9), implying an EBIT margin of 8.6% (Q3'25: 8.4%). The improvement comes from operating leverage on modestly higher volumes, with gross margins continuing to benefit from favourable pricing with large global clients. Pre-tax profit is estimated at MDKK 10.3 (Q3'25: MDKK 4.6), benefiting primarily from lower financing costs as gearing falls, and we forecast EPS of DKK 4.05 (Q3'25: DKK 0.94). For the full year, we estimate continuing operations EBIT of MDKK 48.1, marginally above the midpoint of guidance of MDKK 40-55, which requires Q4 to be the strongest quarter of the year.

Net proceeds from the European sale are the key watchpoint

This is the first report since Gabriel announced the sale of the European FurnMaster operations, and what matters most to us is how much cash Gabriel ultimately receives. The agreed enterprise value of MDKK 67.3 overstates this, as liabilities assumed by the buyer and transaction costs sit in between, and our provisional assumption is net proceeds of approximately MDKK 30. That is well below the carrying value of the assets, and we look for confirmation of the figure alongside an update on the remaining closing conditions and timing, which management expects within the current financial year. The deferred payment of up to MDKK 7.5 is conditional, and we ascribe low value to it, and we assume little to no proceeds from the still-unsold Mexican unit. Management has already indicated proceeds will go towards reducing financial gearing. We expect guidance of MDKK 510-550 for revenue and MDKK 40-55 for EBIT to be confirmed, but see the lower half of both ranges as the more likely landing point if market conditions do not improve. With the share trading at DKK 272 against our target price of DKK 270, we see little in this report likely to change a balanced risk/reward.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Gabriel for a DigitalIR and research agreement. /Rasmus Køjborg and Victor Skriver 10:50 18/08/2026.