GRK Infra Q1'26 preview: Earnings will decrease from an exceptionally strong comparison period

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 04/27/2026 at 07:30 am EEST

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (3 analysts, consensus)

GRK will publish its Q1’2026 interim report on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. We expect the company's revenue and EBIT to decline significantly from the exceptionally strong comparison period, when more favorable weather conditions and the progress of major projects drove the result to an atypically high level for an infrastructure contractor. In the report, we are particularly interested in the development of the order book. We believe the company will reiterate its guidance at this stage of the year.

We expect revenue to return to more normal levels after an exceptional year

We expect GRK's revenue to decline to 120.0 MEUR in Q1'26 (Q1'25: 174.5 MEUR). We believe the exceptionally high level of the comparison period was due to factors such as the rapid progress of the Stegra project in Sweden and a warm winter, which allowed construction work to continue more effectively throughout the season. We now expect Stegra project volumes to decrease significantly, in line with the company's previous guidance.

We expect adjusted EBIT to decrease to 1.1 MEUR, corresponding to an adjusted EBIT margin of 0.9% (Q1'25: 8.7 MEUR and 5.0%). In infrastructure construction, the first quarter is typically the weakest of the year and often even unprofitable, as weather conditions limit project execution. In our view, profitability is weighed down by lower volumes compared to the comparison period, resulting in weaker coverage of fixed costs. Considering the lower volume and the exceptionally strong comparison period, we believe Q1'24 offers a more relevant benchmark for relative profitability, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 0.6%.

In addition to the figures, our interest is focused on the development of the order book and comments on the outlook

In addition to the figures, the most important takeaways from the report are comments on the outlook for the rest of the year and, for example, the effects of the war in Iran on demand and cost levels. We are also closely monitoring the development of the order book. During the quarter, the company announced new significant contracts, the North Bothnia line project in Sweden and a road contract in Estonia. We do not expect any revisions to the guidance at this point in the year. GRK has guided that its 2026 revenue will be 720-870 MEUR and adjusted EBIT will be 45-60 MEUR. We estimate full-year revenue to settle at 800 MEUR and adjusted EBIT at 52 MEUR.

Decisions on Turku tramway in the near future, Stegra's financing round successfully completed

We will also monitor any comments on projects under development, including   Rail Baltica (value for GRK of around 158–216 MEUR) and the Turku tramway (GRK's share of around 190 MEUR). The progression of these projects to the implementation phase would support the company's volumes in the coming years. Regarding the tramway project, the Turku City Board will discuss the decision on April 27, 2026, and the project proposal will proceed to the City Council for consideration on May 18, 2026.

In Sweden, Stegra completed its financing round earlier this month, which we believe will ensure the completion of the steel plant project. This removes uncertainty regarding the realization of the Swedish order book and secures the company's workload for the project for the rest of the year.