Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/21/2026 at 07:40 am EEST

Source: Inderes & Bloomberg, (10/19/2026, 3 analysts) (consensus)

GRK will publish its Q3 report on Tuesday, October 27, at 8:30 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue to have grown by more than a quarter year-on-year, as the record-high order book is realized during the summer season and KSBR, consolidated from the beginning of July, generates inorganic growth. We also expect profitability to have remained at an exceptionally high level, similar to the second quarter, supported by strong project execution and the project mix. In the report, we will be particularly monitoring the development of the order backlog following a record-breaking Q2, the sustainability of profitability, and the company's outlook for the remainder of the year, and particularly for next year.

Seasonally the strongest quarter

We estimate GRK's Q3 revenue to have increased by 27% year-on-year to 327 MEUR (Q3'24: 257 MEUR). The third quarter is seasonally the strongest of the year in infrastructure construction, and our estimate corresponds to ~28% of the 1,170 MEUR order book at the end of the second quarter. In the comparison period, approximately one-third of the order book at the beginning of the quarter was also recognized as revenue in the third quarter. Growth is further supported by KSBR, which is consolidated into the income statement for the first time. We expect growth to be broad-based across all of the company's operating regions. We believe that the development in Sweden poses the greatest uncertainty for the quarter, as its revenue in the early part of the year was clearly below our expectations.

We expect GRK's adjusted EBIT to have improved to 35.0 MEUR (Q3'25: 23.4 MEUR), corresponding to an EBIT margin of 10.7% (Q3'25: 11.6%, Q2'26 11,6 %). Our estimates are based on volume leverage, KSBR's support for relative profitability, and data center projects, which the company stated already had a significant impact on revenue and earnings in the early part of the year. On the other hand, according to the company, Q2 profitability was also supported by the refinement of project estimates resulting from a decrease in project risks, and we do not assume a corresponding support to recur every quarter. Due to PPA depreciation from the KSBR acquisition, the gap between reported and adjusted EBIT will widen, and we forecast a reported EBIT of 31.0 MEUR. Similarly, we expect the reported earnings per share for the quarter to be EUR 0.59 (Q3'25: EUR 0.47).

We believe the order book decreased from the record level of Q2

GRK guides its 2026 revenue to be 820-1,020 MEUR and its adjusted EBIT to be 70-95 MEUR. Our estimates (944 MEUR and 90.5 MEUR) are at the high end of the ranges and require revenue of around 620 MEUR and adjusted EBIT of 60 MEUR for the second half of the year. In connection with Q2, the company estimated that approximately half of the order book, or around 600 MEUR, will be recognized during the rest of the year. We consider it possible that the company will narrow the ranges now that one quarter of the year remains. The acquisition of Pirkan Rakentajapalvelu, completed in early October, does not impact the Q3 figures, and we will add it to our estimates in connection with the Q3 earnings update. The company's annual revenue of ~18.5 MEUR remains small on GRK's scale.

We estimate that the order book decreased during the summer season from the record level of 1,170 MEUR at the end of Q2, taking into account the slower order flow typical for the third quarter and our revenue growth estimate. In Q3, the company will book projects including the Kehä I Keilaniemi and Länsiväylä bridge contract (~27 MEUR), Rail Baltica preparatory work and continuation of the development phase (~13 MEUR), and the first implementation phase of the Turku tramway (~12 MEUR) into its order book. In September, KSBR also won a contract for underground engineering, as well as infrastructure and concrete construction work for a data center area; the value of the contract was not disclosed, but we estimate it to be in the tens of millions of euros. The ~66 MEUR data center contract announced in August was already included in the Q2 order book. In early October, the Finnish Supervisory Agency ordered Google to suspend large-scale preparatory work on the Muhos and Kajaani data center areas for the duration of the environmental impact assessment. According to local news reports, GRK has been working in Muhos since the summer, and if the interruption concerns the company's work, we estimate that it will shift revenue from the fourth quarter to next year. We expect an update from the company in connection with the report.

GRK's development-phase projects still hold significant potential outside the order book. Early in the year, the company estimated the combined value of the Turku tramway, the Rail Baltica main line, and the Luleå port project at around 400 MEUR, of which only a small portion has been recorded in the order book. Projects are transferred to the order book in phases as clients make implementation decisions, which also supports the future development of the order book.