Analyst Comment
GRK won a contract for a section of the extensive Norrbotniabanan project in Sweden
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/22/2025 at 6:50 am EET.
GRK announced on Friday that it has won a contract to build a section of the Norrbotniabanan railway in Northern Sweden. The project is relatively small for the company in terms of size, but it is a strategically important reference in Sweden's growing rail market.
New contract in Northern Sweden
GRK has been selected to carry out earthworks and bridge construction for the Norrbotniabanan railway in Northern Sweden. The contract is valued at approximately 158 MSEK, or around 14.5 MEUR. The project is located in the municipality of Umeå, with work scheduled to begin in 2025 and be completed in 2027.
The contract is diverse in scope, as it includes earthworks, such as soil and rock excavations and embankments, in addition to the construction of three bridges. One of these is for traffic use and two are green bridges for animals. Norrbotniabanan is a 270-kilometer new coastal railway project between Umeå and Luleå, and its construction is divided into several phases extending into the 2030s.
Strategically more significant than the size suggests
The order received is relatively small in GRK's scale (2025e revenue around 860 MEUR), but it supports the company's goal to grow and diversify its order book in Sweden. GRK's order book in Sweden was around 257 MEUR at the end of September, so the new order strengthens the backlog by about 6%.
Despite its size, we consider the order strategically important, as it strengthens GRK's position in the Northern Swedish railway market and serves as a good reference for future Norrbotniabanan projects. We have previously emphasized that it is important for GRK to secure new orders from Sweden to fill the revenue gap left by the large Stegra project, which concludes next year.
The news does not cause immediate changes to our forecasts. The project accounts for only about 1% of our revenue forecast for the company for 2026-2027. However, the order is a positive signal of GRK's competitiveness in the Swedish infrastructure market.
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GRK Infra operates in the infrastructure sector. The company's core competence includes the implementation of various infrastructure projects, project management of large and small projects and extensive railway expertise. Customers include the state, municipalities and cities as well as the private sector. In addition to the parent company GRK Infra Oyj, the GRK Group includes companies in each country of operation: GRK Suomi Oy in Finland, GRK Eesti AS in Estonia and GRK Sverige AB in Sweden.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures31.10.2025
| 2024 | 25e | 26e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 728.4 | 859.8 | 800.0 |
| growth-% | 33.4 % | 18.0 % | -6.9 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 45.6 | 61.9 | 51.9 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 6.3 % | 7.2 % | 6.5 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.93 | 1.24 | 1.03 |
| Dividend | 0.20 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| Dividend % | 2.0 % | 3.6 % | 3.8 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 10.9 | 13.9 | 16.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 | 6.6 | 8.1 |
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