HCA Red Flag: Ørsted beats expectations by 20%, but leaves guidance untouched (AI)
HC Andersen Capital
Summary
- Ørsted exceeded Q3 expectations with an EBITDA of DKK 5,260 million, 20% above the anticipated DKK 4,365 million, yet maintained its guidance at above DKK 28 billion.
- The Greater Changhua 2b and 4 project in Taiwan, initially expected to be operational in Q3, has been delayed to Q4 2026, with some turbine issues covered by warranty.
- Net debt increased by DKK 15.8 billion to DKK 37.7 billion, with negative operating cash flow due to construction investments, though the credit metric remains above the 30% target.
- Revolution Wind achieved full commercial operation in October, contributing to the positive EBITDA surprise, and is expected to benefit from tax credits within a year.
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Automatic translation: Originally published in Danish 05/11/2026, 07:15 GMT. Give feedback here.
| Red Flag · First reading of the financial report · AI-generated content HCA Red Flag: Ørsted beats expectations by 20%, but leaves guidance untouched (AI) Ørsted (ORSTED) · Q3 2026 · November 5 |
Overall assessment: Slightly positive assessment
| Positive assessment | Balanced | Negative assessment |
Ørsted beat Q3 expectations by 20%: EBITDA came in at DKK 5,260 million vs. the expected DKK 4,365 million, and Revolution Wind is now up and running, so full-year estimates should rise. However, the unchanged guidance and the delay in Taiwan cap the potential.
Red flags in the financial statements
Guidance remains untouched at above DKK 28 billion
Unchanged: above DKK 28 billion · Est. DKK 28.6 billion
With DKK 20.2 billion secured after nine months, the guidance only requires DKK 7.8 billion in Q4. Ørsted is not raising the figure, so the upward revision must come from the analysts themselves.
Greater Changhua 2b and 4 slip into the fourth quarter
Now: Q4 · Previous: Q3
Full commercial operation of the 920 MW project in Taiwan, which was promised in Q3 in August, is now expected in Q4 2026. In addition, two commissioned turbines suffered blade damage and a thermal incident, both of which are covered by the supplier's warranty.
Net debt rose by DKK 15.8 billion in a single quarter
Now: DKK 37.7 billion · Previous: DKK 22.0 billion
Operating cash flow was negative DKK 1.2 billion in the quarter because DKK 5.0 billion was tied up in construction for partners such as Hornsea 3. The credit metric, operating cash flow vs. net debt, fell to 37.3% from 42.9% at the end of 2025, but remains above the 30% target.
Green flags in the financial statements
EBITDA 20% above expectations
Actual DKK 5,260 million · Est. DKK 4,365 million
Offshore wind farms generated DKK 4,468 million vs. the expected DKK 3,868 million, driven by 74% higher British power prices and new farms in ramp-up. Wind conditions were only slightly above normal, so most of the surprise was not weather-driven.
Revolution Wind in full commercial operation
New: full commercial operation in October
The 704 MW US offshore wind farm targeted by the October lawsuit entered full commercial operation in October and is selling power to Connecticut and Rhode Island. This starts the clock for tax credits, which CFO Trond Westlie expects to be paid out around a year after commissioning.
The markdown was not worse than feared
Actual DKK 3,442 million · Est. DKK 3,500 million
The markdown on the US projects due to higher interest rates came in close to expectations, allowing the stronger operations to shine through: the Q3 net loss was DKK 728 million vs. the expected DKK 2,560 million.
Disclaimer: This is an HCA AI-generated research commentary based solely on the company's published financial statements. The commentary does not constitute investment consulting and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Investing in shares involves the risk of loss. Seek professional consulting. /HC Andersen Capital, 08:13 AM, Nov 5, 2026
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