HCA Red Flag: SpaceX surprises. AI division profitable for the first time (AI)
HC Andersen Capital
Summary
- SpaceX's Q2 2026 revenue of 7,814 MUSD surpassed expectations by approximately 1 BUSD, driven by new cloud agreements and a 92% year-over-year increase.
- The AI division reported its first profit before depreciation, achieving 1,146 MUSD, although it still incurred a loss of 1,257 MUSD after depreciation.
- Investments significantly exceeded forecasts, reaching 18,369 MUSD, with the AI segment alone accounting for 15,828 MUSD due to data center expansion.
- Starlink's subscriber base doubled to 12 million, maintaining a monthly fee of 66 USD, contributing to a 64% increase in the Connectivity segment's earnings before depreciation.
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Automatic translation: Originally published in undefined 06/08/2026, 13:54 GMT. Give feedback here.
Red Flag · First reading of the financial report · AI-generated content
HCA: SpaceX surprises. AI division profitable for the first time (AI)
SpaceX (SPCX) · Q2 2026 · August 4
The share closed at 114.53 USD on August 3, 15% below the IPO price of 135 USD and 46% below the June peak
Overall assessment
Positive assessment
Positive assessmentBalancedNegative assessment
Revenue of 7,814 MUSD exceeded analysts' expectations of 6,819 MUSD, and the AI business delivered its first profit before depreciation, so the share is expected to open higher. The counterweight: investments reached 18,369 MUSD, and 911.5 million shares will be released on Thursday.
Red flags in the financial report
Investments exceeded expectations by 4 BUSD
Actual 18,369 · Est. 14,234 MUSD
The AI segment alone accounted for 15,828 MUSD due to the expansion of the Colossus II data center, double the 7,723 MUSD in Q1. Over the first half of the year, operating cash flow of 3,466 MUSD barely covered a tenth of the invested amount.
The launch business flew less than the previous year
38 launches vs. 46 · 485 t vs. 652 t
The mass brought into orbit fell by 26% to 485 metric tons, as internal Starlink launches decreased from 37 to 28. The Space segment lost 205 MUSD before depreciation, vs. a loss of 93 MUSD the previous year.
911.5 million shares to be released on Thursday
New: lock-up opens August 6
The first tranche of the lock-up period from the June IPO will release approximately 911.5 million shares, more than 1.6 times the free float. CEO Elon Musk's own position is locked until June 2027, but more tranches will follow until December.
Green flags in the financial report
Revenue beat expectations by of around 1 BUSD
Actual 7,814 · Est. 6,819 MUSD
New cloud agreements, where computing power is sold to other companies, contributed 1,600 MUSD in the quarter and include 14,100 MUSD in contracted sales. The group's revenue increased by 92% vs. the previous year, compared to a growth of 33% for the full year 2025.
AI business delivered its first profit
1,146 MUSD vs. minus 609 MUSD in Q1
Compute contracts turned the segment from a loss of 609 MUSD before depreciation to a profit of 1,146 MUSD. With depreciation, there was still a loss of 1,257 MUSD, but that is half the loss from three months ago.
Starlink doubled its customer base and maintained its price
12.0 million subscribers · 66 USD per month
The number of subscribers reached 12.0 million, double the 6.0 million from the previous year, while the average monthly bill remained at 66 USD after a decrease from 85 USD over the year. The Connectivity segment earned 2,597 MUSD before depreciation, an increase of 64%.
Disclaimer: This is an HCA AI-generated research comment based solely on the company's published financial report. The comment does not constitute investment consulting and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Investing in shares involves risk of loss. Seek professional advice. /HC Andersen Capital, 16.21, 06.08.2026
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