Analyst Comment
HKFoods Q2'25 flash comment: Earnings improved in a challenging market
By Pauli Lohi
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/6/2025 at 9:09 am EEST.
HKFoods reported its Q2 interim report today. Adjusted EBIT increased from the comparison period, though it remains slightly below our forecast. The operating environment in Q2 was challenging in terms of both demand and costs. As expected, the company reiterated its upward earnings guidance for 2025.
| Estimates | Q2'24 | Q2'25 | Q2'25e | Diff-% | 2025e | |
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 255 | 246 | 258 | -5% | 1022 | |
| EBITDA | 11.4 | 13.3 | 15 | -11% | 63.7 | |
| EBIT (adj.) | 4.4 | 6.5 | 7.1 | -8% | 31.7 | |
| EBIT | 3.1 | 6.2 | 7.1 | -12% | 31.7 | |
| EPS (adj.) | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 38% | 0.06 | |
| Revenue growth, % | -13.20% | -3.50% | 1.40% | -4.9 pp | 2.0% | |
| EBIT % (adj.) | 1.70% | 2.60% | 2.70% | -0.1 pp | 3.1% |
Source: Inderes
Operating environment was not conducive to growth
Q2 revenue was 246 MEUR, down 3.5% year-on-year. This decline was driven by the food industry strike at the beginning of the quarter, the shortage of beef, and the impact of the cool early summer on demand for barbecue products. In addition, exports declined relative to the high volumes in the comparison period, which was affected at the time by the timing of deliveries to Q2 due to port strikes. Poultry exports to China progressed as planned. According to the company, consumer demand in the retail channel strengthened slightly from the early part of the year, but food service remained at the same level as in the comparison period, and sales at service stations suffered due to cold weather.
EBIT improved but was slightly below our forecast
Adjusted EBIT for Q2 improved significantly to 6.5 MEUR (Q2’24: 4.4 MEUR), positively impacted by increased operational efficiency, supported by investments and a better sales mix (fewer exports). Conversely, challenges in beef availability, higher prices, and labor disputes in the food industry weakened profitability. Net financial expenses amounted to 3.7 MEUR and were slightly lower than our forecasts, which, together with lower taxes than we estimated, supported the net result. Earnings per share of EUR 0.01 were in line with our expectations.
No changes in the outlook
The company’s outlook for 2025 remained unchanged, as expected. In 2025, HKFoods estimates that the group’s comparable EBIT will grow from 2024. The report did not contain any new information about the redemption of the hybrid.
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HKFoods operates in the food industry. The group includes several subsidiaries with business activities in the sale, marketing and production of meat products from pork, beef and poultry. The group operates the entire value chain, from slaughtering, cutting to processing and resale of the raw materials. HKFoods has the largest operations in the Nordic market. The head office is located in Turku.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures10.06.2025
| 2024 | 25e | 26e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,001.8 | 1,022.3 | 1,047.9 |
| growth-% | -13.9 % | 2.0 % | 2.5 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 27.7 | 31.7 | 33.1 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.2 % |
| EPS (adj.) | -0.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Dividend | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Dividend % | 11.1 % | 2.9 % | 3.5 % |
| P/E (adj.) | neg. | 28.8 | 15.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
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