HKFoods Q3'25 preview: Good signs in the air

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/27/2025 at 07:33 pm EET

Source: Inderes

HKFoods will report its Q3 results on Wednesday, November 5. We estimate that revenue has turned to growth with the support of market pick-up and the company's own investments. We also expect good profitability, although it may be challenging to improve upon the strong earnings level of the comparison period. The company is improving its earnings quite clearly from the previous year, and we consider it possible that the earnings guidance could be specified at some point before the final full-year earnings release.

Market growth has picked up

We predict that HKFoods has increased its revenue by 3% in Q3. This would represent a clear turnaround compared to Q2, when weak retail demand, poor grilling weather, and a few other temporary factors weighed on demand. Retail demand has clearly improved in July-August, which led us to slightly raise our revenue and earnings estimates for the rest of the year (2025 revenue increased by 1% and EBIT by 2%). In addition to the market pick-up, growth may also receive some support from the company's new ready-to-eat product line starting up in Q2, which aims for growth particularly in the foodservice segment. The peer company Atria also reported significant revenue growth in Finland (4%) in Q3.

Earnings at the level of a good comparison period

We believe the comparison period's earnings were stronger than usual, supported by the circumstances, making it somewhat challenging for HKFoods to improve upon, even though demand has recovered. We expect reported EBIT to be 11.3 MEUR (Q3'24: 11.6 MEUR). The estimate assumes a slight weakening of the gross margin (0.3 pp), which is affected by rising production costs, e.g., through the producer price of beef. The streamlining of fixed costs and revenue growth, on the other hand, support the earnings compared to the comparison period. Our earnings per share forecast is EUR 0.04. We expect net financing costs of -4.5 MEUR, which is a slight positive development compared to last year (-5.0 MEUR), but an increase from Q2 levels (-3.7 MEUR) related to the refinancing of the hybrid loan. In the big picture, however, financial expenses are clearly decreasing, supported by both a reduction in the amount of debt and more favorable financing solutions.

The guidance may be specified

HKFoods guides for comparable EBIT to increase from 2024 (27.7 MEUR). We expect the guidance to materialize (our estimate 32.8 MEUR). We consider it possible that the company will update its guidance to a more precise, numerical range in connection with the Q3 earnings report or later, as it did in September 2024 after earnings developed significantly better than the previous year. We see the nascent improvement in Finnish consumer demand as a positive earnings driver, although a possible increase in cost levels and, e.g., the indirect effects of export tariffs imposed by China on EU countries regarding pork could partly weigh on earnings growth.