HKFoods Q3'26 flash comment: Favorable development continued
Summary
- HKFoods' Q3 revenue increased by 3% to 255 MEUR, slightly exceeding estimates, driven by growth in retail and foodservice, particularly in poultry products and ready meals.
- Adjusted EBIT rose by 5% year-over-year to 12.4 MEUR, surpassing expectations by 7%, despite challenges from African swine fever affecting pork exports.
- The company recorded a significant pre-tax profit of 21.1 MEUR due to a refinancing gain, although operating cash flow was 7 MEUR lower than the previous year due to working capital commitments.
- HKFoods maintained its guidance for increased adjusted EBIT in 2026, with Q3 results supporting this outlook, though consumer reactions to inflation remain a concern.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/04/2026 at 09:30 am EET
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Difference (%) | 2026e | |
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 247 | 255 | 252 | 1 % | 1028 | ||
| EBITDA | 18.5 | 19.5 | 19.3 | 1 % | 65.3 | ||
| EBIT (adj.) | 11.8 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 7 % | 35.8 | ||
| EBIT | 10.9 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 6 % | 35.0 | ||
| EPS (adj.) | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 193 % | 0.15 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | -1.8 % | 3.2 % | 2.0 % | 1.2 pp | 3.2 % | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 4.8 % | 4.9 % | 4.6 % | 0.2 pp | 3.5 % |
Source: Inderes
HKFoods published its Q3 earnings report this morning, which was slightly better than our preliminary expectations. The company managed to improve its adjusted EBIT despite export challenges caused by African swine fever. The materialization of the guidance pointing to earnings growth in 2026 is already becoming quite clear on the back of the realized earnings growth. The company press conference can be viewed here from 10 am EET.
Retail and foodservice drove growth
Q3 revenue increased by 3% to 255 MEUR and was slightly (1%) higher than our estimate. Sales increased in all sales channels. Especially Kariniemen poultry products and HK ready meals achieved growth in retail. Higher selling prices of beef also had a positive impact on revenue. In processed meats, the market has been subdued in the early part of the year. Foodservice sales developed favorably.
Earnings improved despite swine fever
Adjusted EBIT was 12.4 MEUR, increasing 5% y/y. Adjusted EBIT exceeded our estimates by 7%. Earnings were supported by the strong development of retail and foodservice. On the other hand, the result was also pressured by, e.g., the price of oil increasing logistics and packaging material costs. African swine fever prevents pork exports to the profitable Chinese and Japanese markets, which the company estimates will have a 1 MEUR negative earnings impact on H2 as a whole (estimate unchanged). The company booked an imputed modification gain of 11.2 MEUR from the refinancing of its bond, as a result of which the company's pre-tax profit was as high as 21.1 MEUR, significantly exceeding our estimate (8.4 MEUR). However, Q3 operating cash flow was 7 MEUR lower than in the comparison period due to working capital commitment.
Guidance unchanged
The company reiterated its guidance that adjusted EBIT for 2026 will increase from 2025. A good Q3 report reinforced the outlook for meeting the guidance, as adjusted EBIT grew by 3 MEUR y/y in January-September, meaning there is no longer significant pressure on the Q4 result from a guidance perspective. According to the company, the cost pressure related to the rise in the oil price was passed on to sales prices at the end of the quarter. We still see it as a minor question mark how consumers will react to the acceleration of inflation.
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