Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/22/2026 at 8:14 am EEST.

Kreate will publish its Q1’2026 interim report on Monday, April 27, 2026. We expect the company's revenue growth to have accelerated from the comparison period, reflecting a very strong order book and the completed acquisition of SRV Infra. However, the first quarter is typically the weakest for the company due to seasonality, and our attention in the report will be particularly focused on the factors behind the raised guidance at the end of March, the development of the order book and the Swedish business, and the outlook. We estimate that the order book strengthened significantly during the quarter from the record level at the end of last year, thanks to a strong order intake.

Revenue grows, driven by the order book and an acquisition

We predict that Kreate’s Q1 revenue has grown by around 49% year-on-year to 78.0 MEUR. The key driver of growth is the acquisition of SRV Infra (now Kreate Rock) completed at the end of 2025, which brings new volume to the company in underground rock construction. In addition, revenue is supported by the order book, which was at a generally strong level at the end of the year (12/25 401 MEUR, +127% y/y). We expect the Swedish business to have continued its strong growth (Q1/26e: 10.5 MEUR, Q1/25: 7.5 MEUR). In addition, we estimate that the order book has further strengthened due to positive order intake. Based on the 401 MEUR order book at the end of 2025, the ~280 MEUR in orders announced during the beginning of the year, and our Q1 revenue forecast, we estimate that the order book rose to over 600 MEUR at the end of Q1. It should also be noted that the disclosed contracts only cover orders exceeding 5 MEUR, which are not subject to confidentiality. Kreate has previously stated that about 15% of its revenue comes from small projects, under 3 MEUR, which fall below the disclosure threshold.

A seasonally quiet quarter, but the trend is upward

We expect Kreate's Q1 EBITA to have been 0.7 MEUR, corresponding to a margin of 0.8%. Although the profitability forecast is low in absolute terms, it’s still an improvement from the near-zero level of the comparison period (Q1'25: 0.1 MEUR). In infrastructure construction, the first quarter is challenging due to weather conditions. Profitability is still somewhat burdened by front-loaded personnel investments made in 2025, which have prepared for the ongoing strong growth that we expect to materialize more strongly as the year progresses. We forecast the reported EPS to remain slightly negative, as the slightly increased net debt due to the acquisition has raised our financing cost estimates.

Strong order intake and KFS consolidation support the outlook for the rest of the year

Kreate significantly raised its 2026 guidance on March 30, 2026, and now estimates full-year revenue to be 510–550 MEUR and EBITA to be 18–22 MEUR. The raised guidance is supported by strong operational development and improved outlook in the early part of the year, as well as a technical change in reporting methods, as the joint venture KFS Finland will be consolidated as a subsidiary from the beginning of April. This change is expected to increase reported revenue by around 30 MEUR during the current year, starting from the second quarter. In the report, we are particularly interested in comments on private sector demand, which the company has estimated to have strengthened, especially in data center projects. These projects compensate for the softness in other new construction. We are also monitoring cost inflation management and the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on construction costs and demand. Overall, Kreate's growth outlook for 2026 is exceptionally strong, driven by a record-high order book, the SRV Infra acquisition completed at the end of last year, and large development-phase projects progressing to execution.