Kreate Q3'25 flash comment: Very strong volume development
Summary
- Kreate's Q3 2025 revenue reached a record high of 94.7 MEUR, surpassing estimates by 12%, driven by strong volume growth, particularly in Structural engineering and Transport infrastructure.
- The company's order book, although slightly decreased from the previous quarter, remains robust at 242 MEUR, with significant projects like the Junatie metro bridge and Vantaa light rail supporting future growth.
- Kreate reiterated its full-year 2025 guidance, with revenue expected between 290-310 MEUR and EBITA between 9-11 MEUR, appearing achievable given the strong Q3 performance and current estimates.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/2/22025 at 9:20 am EET.
Kreate published its Q3 report this morning, which was stronger than we expected. The company's revenue and earnings clearly exceeded our estimates, driven by record-high volume. The order book decreased slightly from the previous quarter but remains at a strong level. Kreate reiteterated its full-year 2025 and after a strong Q3 performance, guidance seems even more certain to be achieved.
| Estimates | Q3'24 | Q3'25 | Q3'25e | Q3'25e | Consensus | Difference (%) | 2025e | |||
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Act. vs. inderes | Inderes | ||
| Revenue | 77.6 | 94.7 | 84.7 | 12% | 310 | |||||
| EBITA | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 10% | 10.0 | |||||
| EBIT | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 10% | 10.0 | |||||
| PTP | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 23% | 7.8 | |||||
| EPS (reported) | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 23% | 0.70 | |||||
| Revenue growth-% | -12.1 % | 22.0 % | 9.2 % | 12.9 pp | 12.4 % | |||||
| EBITA-% | 4.0 % | 4.2 % | 4.3 % | -0.1 pp | 3.2 % | |||||
Source: Inderes
Revenue and earnings clearly exceeded our expectations
Kreate's Q3 revenue grew by 22% from the comparison period to 94.7 MEUR, clearly exceeding our 84.7 MEUR estimate. The quarter's revenue was a record high in the company's history. By business line, revenue in Structural engineering grew particularly strongly by 29% to 63.7 MEUR. In Transport infrastructure, revenue also grew by 10% to 29.9 MEUR. By country, revenue in Finland grew by 16%, while in Sweden, growth was clearly stronger than our forecasts, with revenue increasing by 59%. Strong volume development also supported profitability, and adjusted EBITA was 4.0 MEUR, while our forecast was 3.6 MEUR. The EBITA margin was 4.2%, which was almost in line with our forecast of 4.3%. The absolute earnings improvement thus came from stronger-than-expected volume. According to the company, the development was in line with plans and supported by good project execution. Based on market comments, the market for large and demanding projects is strong, which is an excellent fit for Kreate's expertise and will support its development in the future.
Order book at a strong level, supporting the future
Kreate's order backlog was 242 MEUR at the end of Q3. The order book decreased from 281 MEUR at the end of Q2, and order intake was lower than revenue. Compared to the prior-year period, however, the order book is at a very strong level, with growth of as much as 58%. The company just won the contract for the Junatie metro bridge in Helsinki, and it also has significant projects in the development phase (e.g. Vantaa light rail), which is still under development. The company's market outlook is stronger than normal and is strengthening in both Finland and Sweden, which will also support volume development in the future.
The guidance now looks even more achievable
Kreate reiterated its full-year 2025 guidance, according to which the company estimates revenue to be 290-310 MEUR and EBITA 9-11 MEUR. After January-September, revenue is 220.7 MEUR and EBITA is 6.3 MEUR. Achieving the guidance requires at least 69.3 MEUR in revenue and 2.7 MEUR in EBITA for Q4. With our current estimates, full-year revenue is approaching the upper end of the guidance range, while our EBITA estimate is in the middle of the range. The company estimates that 87 MEUR of the order book will be realized during the 2025 financial year.
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Kreate Group operates in the infrastructure sector. The company offers a wide range of services in the development of demanding industrial projects. Examples of services include bridge repair and construction, track construction for trains and rails, and mass excavation and crushing of rock for new motorway extensions. The largest operations are conducted around the Nordic market.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures06.10.2025
| 2024 | 25e | 26e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 275.5 | 299.8 | 323.7 |
| growth-% | -13.9 % | 8.8 % | 8.0 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 8.2 | 9.7 | 12.4 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 3.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.8 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.43 | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| Dividend | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| Dividend % | 7.0 % | 2.1 % | 2.2 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 16.5 | 36.7 | 26.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 | 14.7 | 12.7 |
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