Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/13/2026 at 8:12 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Merus Power will publish its H1 earnings report on Thursday, August 20. We estimate that the company has progressed in its growth story in the first half of the year based on factors such as strong order intake and successful international sales of its energy storage business. Conversely, the income statement for H1 may turn out to be somewhat lackluster, as revenue growth is likely to occur only in H2 of this year. At the same time, sluggish conditions in the power quality market may have negatively impacted the relative gross margin. Therefore, the income statement should provide a good indication of the margin level in the energy storage business. 

Revenue concentrated towards the end of the year

We forecast H1 revenue to have been 24.7 MEUR, moderately below the comparison period (a decrease of 1% y/y). The company began 2026 with an order book that was 18% smaller than in the comparison period. Nevertheless, this has been offset by strong order intake in the early part of the year, some of which has already been partially recognized as revenue in H1. However, we believe that expectations for revenue growth are more clearly focused on H2, when a significantly larger portion of the strong order intake from the first half of the year will be recognized as revenue. The vast majority of revenue comes from energy storage systems because reported order intake for power quality solutions has recently been sluggish, while the energy storage market has performed well for quite some time. We estimate that order intake grew by as much as 83% in H1 relative to the weaker comparison period.

In terms of profitability, we focus on margin

In 2025, the company demonstrated its ability to improve profitability as operations stabilized and scale increased. We expect the earnings turnaround to continue this year, but only in H2. Our H1 EBITDA estimate of 0.1 MEUR is slightly weaker than the comparison period (H1’25: 0.3 MEUR). We estimate EBIT at -0.6 MEUR (H1’25: -0.5 MEUR). H1 is also typically the smaller, less profitable half of the year for the company due to seasonality.

From a profitability turnaround perspective, monitoring the development of the gross margin will be interesting (forecast: 32.8%; H1'25: 32.3%). We estimate that the margin will improve slightly, supported by operational stabilization. On the other hand, a shift in the revenue mix towards energy storage solutions may weaken the margin structure. We estimate that the cost environment remained moderately stable. Battery prices decreased sharply in 2025, but we believe the price decrease has at least stopped this year, as China has reduced subsidies for battery exports. Nevertheless, Merus Power generally aims to secure the prices of key components well in advance when a customer order is placed, reducing the risks associated with battery prices.

Strong order intake supports growth expectations

Merus Power's guidance has been that revenue will grow and EBITDA will be 2-4 MEUR in 2026. This guidance seems realistic given the recent order intake, although forecasting profitability has proven challenging in recent years. We estimate that the company's order book strengthened to approximately 48 MEUR at the end of H1 (a 63% year-on-year increase). In our view, the market has remained active even though the frequency regulation market has become saturated and returns have decreased from the high levels of 2023–24. Market activity is maintained by the need for new electricity generation due to the electrification of society and data centers and, on the other hand, by the use of energy storage to smooth out price peaks. The power quality market, in turn, has suffered from geopolitical uncertainty. In our view, the energy storage market is still susceptible to fluctuations because the industry is relatively new and capital-intensive. For this reason, we will closely monitor the company's comments regarding the market outlook.