Translation: Original published in Finnish on 9/30/2026 at 9:12 am EEST.

On Wednesday morning, Merus Power announced its new strategy and updated financial targets for 2027–2030. The company's revenue target of 160 MEUR and EBITDA target of over 12% for 2030 are ambitious and clearly exceed our current long-term estimates. The details of the strategy, including the growth of the energy storage business in Europe and the expansion of the services business, largely met expectations. The company will host a Capital Markets Day (CMD) today, starting at 9.30 am (EEST), where it will elaborate on its strategy in more detail. We do not anticipate the strategy necessitating immediate changes to our estimates, and we will revisit the topic after the CMD.

Growth target clearly exceeds our estimates

The company is targeting revenue of 160 MEUR in 2030, which would translate to an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 28% from our current year revenue estimate of 59 MEUR. This target far exceeds our own estimate of 102 MEUR for 2030, which relied on average annual growth of around 15%, driven by energy storage. While we do not consider the new target impossible, we believe it requires both rapid progress in internationalizing the business and maintaining an active Finnish domestic market. In the power quality business, the company is seeking growth from data centers, green steel, electric rail transport, and the hydrogen industry, which is in line with the company's previous statements and actions. We see the aforementioned growth segments as opportunities but also as areas with heavy competition.

Profitability target remains very demanding

Although the new target of at least 12% EBITDA for 2030 has decreased slightly from the previous strategy period's target of over 15%, we still consider it to be a very ambitious goal within the context of the industry. The energy storage business has a structurally thin relative margin level, as the share of subcontracted batteries in the value of deliveries is significant. We have estimated before that the company's long-term EBITDA margin will settle at around 7%, corresponding to an EBIT margin of around 5%, which, in turn, roughly corresponds to the highest proven profitability levels in Western countries (Wärtsilä 2024). Reaching a level of more than 12%, however, would likely necessitate a significant increase in the service and software business shares (e.g., trading software), as well as exceptionally strong pricing power and economies of scale in a competitive market.

The company hints at the possibility of distributing dividends at the end of the period

The other strategy targets, such as achieving an equity ratio of over 35% and primarily reinvesting returns into growth, are logical and in line with the company's current stage of development. The possibility of a dividend distribution at the end of the strategy period reflects management's confidence that scaling will result in clearly positive cash flow for the company. The release did not directly mention any needs to strengthen the balance sheet, and we look forward to seeing if the matter is addressed during the CMD presentations.