Metacon Q4’25 preview: Project execution and orders in focus

Source: Inderes

Metacon will publish its Q4 interim report on Wednesday, February 11, 2026. We expect the report to show a significant year-on-year increase in revenue driven by the continued execution of the large-scale Motor Oil project, and we anticipate that profitability will remain negative as the company continues its commercial scale-up phase. Our focus will be on the progress of the current order backlog, gaining further insight into the company’s financial position, and detecting any signs of new large-scale project wins.

Revenue growth driven by project execution

We expect Metacon to report Q4 revenue of 64.6 MSEK, contributing to a full-year 2025 revenue of 212.3 MSEK. This represents a substantial increase compared to the previous year, primarily driven by revenue recognition from the 50 MW Motor Oil project in Greece. While revenue recognition in Q3 was lower than we had anticipated due to component delivery timing, we view this as a temporary shift that should support higher volumes in Q4 and into 2026. In addition to the Motor Oil project, we expect the 7.5 MW hydrogen project for Elektra Power and the order in Morocco to contribute to the revenue mix. Regarding order intake, Metacon has not announced any new orders since the last order from Elektra in September 2025. As a result, we expect the order backlog, an indicator of future revenue as it consists of confirmed customer orders not yet fully delivered, to have amounted to around 207 MSEK at the end of Q4’25, which paves the way for continued revenue growth.

Earnings are still negative

We anticipate a Q4 EBIT of -13.8 MSEK, bringing the full-year 2025 EBIT to -58.3 MSEK. Although revenues are scaling rapidly, profitability remains weighed down by high fixed costs associated with the company's growth phase and relatively low gross margins, which we estimate at approximately 20%. While the weak operating result is likely to continue weighing on cash flow, Metacon received a milestone payment of approximately 23 MSEK in Q4 from Elektra Power as an advance for the delivery of a 7.5 MW electrolysis plant, which we expect to support operating cash flow after changes in working capital.

Outlook depends on order backlog conversion and new large-scale wins

Metacon does not typically provide financial guidance or specific forward-looking comments, and we do not expect this policy to change with the upcoming report. However, we expect Metacon’s growth outlook to remain positive in 2026 as well, driven by continued order backlog conversion. As a result, our current full-year revenue estimate for 2026 is 476 MSEK, with an EBIT estimate of -51 MSEK. This is based on the assumption of increased order intake and the successful conversion of the existing order backlog.  In the upcoming Q4 report, we will be closely watching for updates on the progress of the current order backlog, demand-related information, and further insight into the company’s financial position.