Translation: Original published in Finnish on 04/22/2026 at 07:00 am EEST

Modulight announced on Tuesday that it will issue financial guidance for 2026. The company expects its 2026 revenue and EBITDA to grow year-on-year. The guidance is in line with our current estimates, in which we expect gradual growth in the company and a turnaround to positive profitability at the EBITDA level. The announcement does not cause immediate pressure to change our estimates. We will review our assessment of the share in connection with Friday's Q1 report.

The company expects revenue and EBITDA to improve

Modulight has not previously issued guidance due to low visibility and a revision of its business model. According to the release, the guidance aims to improve transparency and predictability for investors.  In the previous financial year 2025, Modulight's revenue was 7.1 MEUR (a 73% year-on-year increase) and EBITDA was -0.2 MEUR, for which the company is now guiding an improvement. We believe the growth expectations are primarily driven by the progress of the Pay Per Treatment (PPT) model, which has started to generate more continuous and predictable revenue streams for the company. The improvement in profitability is supported by revenue and sales margin growth, as well as the change negotiations carried out at the end of the year. The company stated it had identified savings targets during the negotiations, although the exact euro amounts were not disclosed. We remind that when examining EBITDA as a measure of profitability, the large costs capitalized on the balance sheet must be taken into account (2025: 3.4 MEUR). We consider EBIT to be a more descriptive measure of financial performance, roughly corresponding to the company's cash flow after investments.

Our estimates are in line with the growth outlook

Our current estimates for 2026 expect Modulight's revenue to rise to 8.4 MEUR, which would mean growth of around 19% year-on-year. We expect EBITDA to reach 0.3 MEUR and thus turn positive after the loss-making level in 2025. The company is thus on its way to a profitability turnaround, supported by revenue growth, previously implemented savings measures, and strict cost control. Visibility into growth in the coming years is quite low, so the forecast risk related to the earnings turnaround is high. However, we consider the issuance of guidance to be a partially positive signal of the company's business stabilization.