Modulight Q1'26 preview: Steady progress supported by the PPT model

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/22/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

Modulight will publish its Q1’2026 interim report on Friday, April 24, 2026, at 10:30 AM EEST. We expect the company's revenue to have continued its moderate growth from the comparison period, but for the operating result to remain negative. In the report, our attention will be particularly focused on the development of the pay-per-treatment (PPT) revenue and the sufficiency of the company's cash reserves as the new strategy period begins.

Moderate revenue growth

We estimate Modulight's Q1 revenue to be 1.8 MEUR, which would represent ~12% year-on-year growth (Q1'25: 1.6 MEUR). Growth is supported by recurring pay-per-treatment (PPT) revenue from the installed system base and the progress of clinical trials. The increasing relative share of the PPT model has also reduced revenue fluctuations between quarters. There is uncertainty in our forecast, particularly regarding revenue from clinical trials, which can fluctuate based on the intensity of patient recruitment and the different phases of the trials. Additionally, we are monitoring whether the company has succeeded in securing new projects to replace the quantum computing order, which was recognized as revenue during 2025 and particularly strengthened the second quarter of last year.

The cost level and high depreciation keep the result in the red

We expect Q1 EBIT to be -1.3 MEUR. Although we expect the figures to improve slightly from the comparison period (Q1'25: -1.6 MEUR), the operating result will remain clearly in the red. The result is particularly burdened by high depreciation due to the company's significant production plant investments and capitalized development expenditures. We also note in our forecast that the exceptionally low material and operating costs that boosted Q4'25 earnings are not, in our view, at a sustainable level, even though previous savings measures have reduced the company's cost structure. We expect the gross margin to remain at a good level, supported by the growth of high-margin PPT revenue.

Financial position and progress of the new strategy period in focus

Modulight does not typically provide numerical guidance. The company has entered a new strategy period for 2026–2027, which continues to focus on pursuing growth and improving profitability. A key item to monitor in the report is the company's net cash, which stood at 6.86 MEUR at the end of 2025. At the current burn rate, we estimate that the cash will last for approximately another year. The company cannot afford significant setbacks, and operating cash flow should turn positive quickly.

In the report, we will also monitor management's comments on the launch of new customer projects and the progress of the commercialization of the Visudyne laser for ophthalmology in the United States. We consider it particularly important to see signs that the PPT model is scaling up quickly enough to cover the company's still high fixed costs. If revenue growth does not show signs of accelerating, we estimate that the probability of a new financing round will increase during 2026.