Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/20/2026 at 7:59 am EEST.

Modulight will publish its Q3 report on Friday, October 23. We expect the company's revenue to return to slight year-on-year, supported by recurring PPT revenue and a recently received pilot production order. We expect the result to remain on par with the comparison period and clearly in the red due to high depreciation. In the report, our attention will be focused especially on the sufficiency of cash, the scaling of the PPT model, and management's comments on the outlook for the rest of the year and the announced neuroscience sector order.

We expect moderate revenue growth

We expect Modulight's Q3 revenue to have increased slightly from the comparison period to 1.9 MEUR (Q3'25: 1.8 MEUR) We estimate that growth will be supported in particular by the continued gradual increase in PPT (Pay-Per-Treatment) revenue, although its absolute level remains low. In addition, the 1.5 MUSD pilot production order announced in September from a US neuroscience customer will begin to gradually support revenue during the remainder of the year. In the previous quarter, revenue was burdened by pricing pressure on prototype deliveries and delays in certain projects, so we will be following with interest whether there has been a turn for the better in these factors.

Earnings remain in the red, weighed down by heavy depreciation and amortization

We expect the Q3 EBIT to remain at the level of the comparison period at -1.2 MEUR. Modulight's EBIT is burdened by heavy depreciation resulting from the company's extensive investments in the production plant and capitalized development costs. At the EBITDA level, the result may reach close to break-even depending on how much costs are capitalized on the balance sheet. We expect operating expenses to remain quite well in check thanks to the cost-saving measures implemented late last year. We estimate that the gross margin will remain at a good level, supported by the growth of high-margin PPT revenue.

Focus on cash sufficiency and rest-of-year guidance

Modulight has guided for revenue and EBITDA to increase from the previous year. We do not expect the company to change its guidance in connection with the Q3 report. Achieving the target, however, requires a clear pick-up towards the end of the year, which is already partly supported by the neuroscience order received in September.

In addition to the earnings figures, we will pay special attention to the company's financial position. At the end of Q2, net cash was 5.8 MEUR. Although cash burn has slowed down thanks to cost-saving measures, financing risk remains elevated due to the loss-making nature of the business. In the report, we will also monitor management's comments on the progress of new customer projects toward the commercialization phase. Of particular interest is hearing updates on the progress of the commercialization of the ophthalmology Visudyne laser in the US. In addition, we will monitor the progress of patient enrollment in the Phase 3 trial by our key oncology partner, Aura Biosciences. We consider it important to see concrete signs that the company's broad project pipeline is maturing and driving the turnaround toward profitability.