Nexstim Q3'25: Steady progress during the fall

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/23/2025 at 07:00 am EEST

Nexstim published its Q3’25 business update on Wednesday. The company reported that it delivered 16 systems during Q1-Q3 (Q1-Q3’24: 11). At the end of Q3, there were 7 undelivered systems. During the review period, the company reported active marketing at industry events with Brainlab. Regarding the Sinaptica collaboration, things appear to be progressing as announced in H1, and the companies are working towards a final cooperation contract. Achieving our full-year estimate requires an active order flow in Q4, which we believe is attainable. Our estimates remain unchanged after the business update.

Systems sales are increasing from the comparison period

Nexstim reports its results on a semi-annual basis and supplements its performance with Q1 and Q3 business updates. The reviews do not report financial figures, but the company does report the number of system deliveries made during the period. The company reported that it has supplied 13 diagnostic systems (Q1-Q3’24: 5) and 3 therapy systems (Q1-Q3’24: 6). At the end of Q3, there were 7 undelivered systems. There were 21 sales announcements during Q1-Q3, which is more than the number of deliveries. According to our interpretation, some of the releases concerned systems in the delivery base.

After the reporting period, Nexstim announced three system sales, meaning the current full-year sales situation would thus be a total of 26 systems (16+7+3). In 2024, Nexstim delivered 30 systems. Achieving our year-end estimate, made after the H1 report (H2: 30 systems), would, in addition to systems already known, require around 13 new system deals during the rest of the year. We consider the amount to be somewhat high, but achievable given the company's positive comments and a seasonally busy Q4. Support for the rest of the year may also come from the recently received CE marking of the NBS6 system and FDA approval for diagnostic features, if some customers have waited for the permits before making their purchase. Nexstim has offered its customers an upgrade option from NBS5 to the new version, which has contributed to reducing the incentive for customers to wait for the final regulatory approvals. There is little external visibility into sales for the remainder of the year, so we will follow releases and update our estimates after the turn of the year if necessary. 

Statistics on sold systems and the development of the installed base

New sales incrementally increase the system base capable of therapy applications, and at the end of Q3'25, the system base stood at 121 units (Q3’24: 93 units). Of these, 45 were in the US and 76 outside the US – primarily in Europe. The system base provides Nexstim with recurring revenue through, for example, system rental and maintenance contracts, user licenses, and sales of consumables. The company says it has sold a total of over 250 diagnostic systems. Sales of these products began at the start of the 2010s. In the Diagnostics Business, recurring revenue plays a smaller role, so the size of the system base is a less important variable than in the Therapy Business.

Active marketing with Brainlab

Regarding the Brainlab collaboration, Nexstim reported that it had attended several industry conferences together with Brainlab. The companies market Nexstim's technology integrated with Brainlab solutions. According to the release, the events have shown increased demand for the companies' solutions. This information partly supports the realization of our growth estimates, even though no concrete numerical support is yet available.

Sinaptica cooperation and contract drafting are progressing

In June 2024, Nexstim announced a collaboration with Sinaptica Therapeutics for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. If the letter of intent materializes, Nexstim will develop, manufacture, and deliver the system for Sinaptica's Phase III clinical trial. The initial phase of the contract would be worth around 6 MEUR to Nexstim. In the long term, there is further potential for Nexstim in a possible commercialization after Phase III. In June, the companies signed an exclusive contract under which Nexstim will receive 1.5 MEUR in payments during 2025. Of this, 0.2 MEUR was realized in H1’25, and the remaining 1.3 MEUR is included in our H2 estimate. In this report, no significant new information was provided on the progress of the cooperation, so we assume things are progressing according to previous milestones However, there is still uncertainty regarding the finalization of the contract, as Sinaptica needs a follow-on financing round to implement its future plans.

Expecting a year of growth and profit

For 2025, Nexstim has guided that revenue will increase (2024: 8.7 MEUR) and EBIT will improve (2024: -0.5 MEUR). We find the target to be easily achievable, supported by the H1 figures, the guaranteed margin of the Brainlab collaboration, and recurring revenue. In addition, revenue is increased by Sinaptica’s system orders and a contract fee of 1.5 MEUR. Our 2025 revenue estimate is 15.7 MEUR and EBIT estimate is 4.3 MEUR, with the assumptions stated in the text, of which we believe the most uncertainty is related to the signing of the Sinaptica contract. In a positive scenario, the finalization of the contract could bring an additional signing fee for the current year. On the other hand, if Sinaptica’s funding round is delayed, the contract may also be delayed or not concluded.