Nightingale makes important entry into public sector in Finland

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 6/16/2025 at 12:22 noon EEST.

We view the collaboration with the South Savo wellbeing services county as valuable for Nightingale, especially as a reference, as it is the company's first cooperation in primary healthcare in the public sector. In addition, its potential expansion to two other wellbeing services counties offers the company opportunities to expand its presence in the near future. The project's revenue impact is expected to be smaller in the initial phase. However, if the public sector collaboration expands successfully in Finland and the company's test becomes routine nationally, this opening could become very significant commercially over time.

Important entry into the public sector

The agreed collaboration project will collect and analyze blood samples for several years. The project will start in August with a preparatory deployment project, and the aim is to integrate Nightingale's test into the operations of the South Savo wellbeing services county from the beginning of 2026. The concluded agreement also allows two other, as yet unnamed, wellbeing services counties to join the project during the fall.

The South Savo wellbeing services county has a population of over 100,000. The Nightingale test would presumably only be used for some of these people, and for example, analyzing 1,000-10,000 samples annually at a list price of EUR 34 per sample would correspond to annual revenue of 34-340 TEUR. However, this is a reference implementation and the customer is presumably cost-conscious, so the price level may well be significantly lower. Our forecast for Nightingale's revenue for fiscal year 2025 is 5.2 MEUR, so the revenue impact of the agreement would be minor on its own. However, should the project be a success and the company's test expand over time through extensions to several wellbeing service counties in Finland for national use, the revenue potential at list prices with, for example, 100,000–1,000,000 annual samples would be 3.4-34 MEUR. Thus, in the best-case scenario, the opening in the public sector's primary health care in Finland could expand for the company into something commercially very significant over the course of several years, but for investors, this is still a very uncertain option. 

In our extensive report published last week, we estimated that public sector clients are still a "longer-term prospect" for the company. So far, this segment was the only one for which Nightingale's annual targets for commercial contract wins had not been achieved (originally, the goal was to win a significant public sector partnership by June 30, 2023). Thus, the success of the public sector launch already now was a clearly positive surprise for us, as it opens up growth opportunities for the company from a wider customer base earlier than expected.

Although our expectations were focused on other segments, we had expected the company to win contracts for the current year in any case, as these are needed to support our growth forecasts. The news reinforces the foundation of the company's growth story and provides more potential ways to reach our long-term growth forecasts, but does not create immediate pressure to revise our forecasts or view. In our view, the next key steps to reducing the risks in Nightingale's growth story relate to the growth in volumes of existing collaborations, which would improve visibility on the realization of strong revenue growth and reduce forecast risks. The next checkpoint for this is the publication of the company's financial statement release in September.