Translation: Original published in Finnish on 07/07/2026 at 08:50 am EEST

Source: Inderes & Bloomberg (consensus)

Nordea will publish its Q2 results on Thursday, July 16. In our estimates, EBIT still decreases by around 4%, but this is primarily due to the positive impact of loan loss buffers disappearing. The most important revenue line, net interest income, is still expected to decrease year-on-year in our forecasts, but we estimate that the quarterly bottom is already over and that net interest income will return to growth in Q3 at the latest. Thus, we believe Nordea's earnings outlook is stable and warrants guidance for a return on equity above 15% for this year.

The bottom of net interest income is at hand

We estimate Nordea's net operating income to have increased by 2% from the comparison period in Q2. Net interest income is still expected to decline year-on-year in our forecasts, but based on the company's comments, we estimate that the quarterly low point is already behind us. This is not certain, of course, but all signs indicate that net interest income will return to growth in Q3 at the latest. At the current interest rate level, there should also be no significant uncertainty associated with this assumption. We expect Nordea's loan portfolio to have continued its moderate growth in Q2, in line with the development of the bank's operating countries.

In contrast, we expect net fee and commission income to have grown significantly from the comparison period. The primary driver of growth is asset management, which we estimate will continue to grow faster than other banking activities due to the favorable development of client assets under management. For other income lines, we expect a fairly typical quarter.

Dismantling of loan loss provisions no longer provides support for earnings

We expect Nordea's operating expenses to grow only moderately year-on-year. Overall, our cost estimates anticipate very stable development in the coming years, as we expect the ongoing restructuring measures to gradually take effect and support operational efficiency. During the strategy period, Nordea expects its headcount to decrease due to, e.g., simplification of IT infrastructure and adoption of AI applications, but due to other investments (e.g., the development of digital capabilities), management has estimated operational costs to grow by an average of about 2% per year.

We estimate that loan losses remained moderate, although it should be noted that management judgment buffers no longer support the reported figures. Thus, we estimate Q2 loan losses (0.08% of the credit portfolio) to be closer to the company's estimated normal level (0.10% of the credit portfolio).

Our Q2 estimate for Nordea's profit before tax is 1,539 MEUR and EPS is EUR 0.34. EBIT will thus still decrease by around 4% in our estimates, but this is due to the positive impact of loan loss provisions disappearing.

Stable earnings outlook warrants profitability guidance

Nordea has guided for a return on equity (ROE) of over 15% and a cost-to-income ratio of around 45% (adjusted for restructuring costs and regulatory fees) for 2026. We believe the company will reiterate this guidance, as we think the earnings outlook has remained stable and has even received some support from the increased interest rate level. We also closely monitor management's comments on how the restructuring and related personnel changes are progressing, as these aim to achieve significant cost savings in the coming years.

Nordea may also announce a new share buyback program in connection with its Q2 earnings. Our estimates still expect one 250 MEUR program for 2026. The bank's management has commented that it will review the profit-sharing situation after Q2.

We also remind investors that Nordea will publish the Board of Directors' decision on the mid-year dividend in connection with Q2. This amounts to around 50% of the first half's earnings, which, according to our estimates, means a mid-year dividend of EUR 0.33.