Nurminen Logistics Q3’25 preview: Inorganic growth boosts revenue, we expect earnings to remain strong

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/20/2025 at 08:31 am EEST

Source: Inderes

Nurminen Logistics will publish its Q3 report on Thursday, October 23, at around 9.00 am (EEST). We expect the company’s revenue to have grown clearly from the comparison period, supported by inorganic growth. We also estimate earnings to have been at a good level, even if slightly decreased from the comparison period. In addition to the figures, we are particularly interested in comments on the market situation.

We expect revenue to have turned to strong growth

We expect the company's revenue to have been on a strong growth trajectory of around 25% in Q3, supported especially by inorganic growth (particularly Essinge Rail). By business, we expect the Baltic development to have remained slightly below the comparison period, with its revenue settling at 8.5 MEUR (Q3'24: 9.4 MEUR) in line with the previous quarter’s development (Q2’25: 7.8 MEUR). However, the company's development is affected by volatile raw material transports, which can vary considerably between quarters. Instead, we expect the Railway Businesses to have been the growth driver. We estimate that the business development was particularly supported by the inclusion of Essinge Rail, although we assess that economic uncertainty negatively impacted its volumes (note: more detailed figures from within the Railway Business are not reported). We also estimate that North Rail grew slightly, driven by higher volumes than in the comparison period, although the revenue level cannot be directly estimated from public statistics. Correspondingly, other international routes and Finnish businesses are expected to have grown moderately in absolute terms (excl. inorganic growth generated by ILP-Group Logistics) in line with Finland’s weak economic development.

We expect earnings to have been at a good level, despite a slight decrease from an exceptionally strong comparison period

We estimate adjusted EBITA to have slightly decreased from the comparison period, but still to have been at a strong level of 5.3 MEUR, corresponding to an EBITA margin of 17.6%. We estimate that the company's strong performance and high margin level, especially in North Rail, contributed to the earnings. However, the exceptionally high margins of the comparison period are offset at Group level by the acquisition of Essinge Rail, despite the good margin for its industry. Further, we estimate that the decrease in North Rail's relative revenue share and some highly profitable transports that occurred in the comparison period will impact the Group's margins negatively. Overall, however, we estimate that the Rail businesses' margin was at a good level and that the Baltic business found a stable margin level.

Correspondingly, on the lower lines, we expect financial expenses and taxes to have been around normal levels. We expect the earnings attributable to Nurminen's shareholders to have been depressed by the minority interests in the Baltics and North Rail (Q3’25e: 1.2 MEUR). Reflecting this overall picture, we expect reported EPS to land at EUR 0.03.

Comments on the outlook for the company's various businesses are of interest

Nurminen has issued a guidance for this year in which it expects its revenue (2024: 105 MEUR) and comparable EBITA (2024: 19.1 MEUR) to grow from last year. According to the company, the expected revenue and EBIT growth are based on increasing railway operations in the Group's market areas. We still view the guidance as rather broad, especially for revenue, considering the corporate transactions made at the end of 2024 (especially Essinge Rail), whose combined revenues last year were 24.3 MEUR. On the other hand, based on the company's comments, Essinge's volume development in H1 was depressed by, e.g., the delayed arrival of summer, as it focuses especially on consumer products (e.g. beverages). In addition, with heightened uncertainty, we believe that a rather flat market situation limits organic growth opportunities in the short term.

However, we will continue to monitor any revisions to the guidance (incl. possible numerical guidance). In our current estimates, we expect the company's revenue to rise to 122 MEUR and the adjusted EBITA to settle at 21.8 MEUR. Thus, we estimate that the company has opportunities to upgrade at least its verbal revenue guidance, although we do not know the precise underlying assumptions of the verbal guidance. In addition to the figures, we are particularly interested in comments on the market situation of the different businesses.