Translation: Original published in Finnish on 09/28/2026 at 08:00 am EEST

The Estonian government announced that it is selling Omniva, a transport and logistics company operating in the Baltic countries, through a public tender process. Omniva is Posti's competitor in the Baltic parcel delivery market. We estimate that Posti will participate in the auction, as Omniva would strengthen its position in the Baltic parcel delivery market, and we consider the asking price set by the seller to be moderate. In our view, the transaction's value creation opportunities at a purchase price higher than the asking price are good, supported by Posti's track record of profitable operations in Finland's parcel delivery business and the cost benefits achievable through integration. We emphasize that Posti has not announced its participation in the bidding process.

Omniva has grown driven by its parcel business, but its earnings level still has room for improvement

In September, the Estonian government launched a sealed-bid auction to sell all shares in AS Eesti Post. The company operates under the Omniva brand. The initial share price has been set at 52 MEUR, and the deadline for submitting bids ends at the end of November 2026. The decision regarding the sale was made by the Estonian government on April 6, 2026. This is based on a desire to reduce the state's business and investment risk, as well as the idea that the state's role should primarily be that of a regulator rather than an owner.

Omniva is a logistics and transport company that has transformed from a traditional national postal service into a regional parcel and logistics group since the 2010s. The company operates in all three Baltic countries, in addition to which it engages in small-scale international freight business. The business is divided into parcel and courier services, which is the core business, international freight and logistics operations, and traditional postal services. Structurally declining postal services account for around 25%, and the share of unprofitable universal service obligation business is already small in the company's revenue, i.e., around 5%.

Omniva's revenue has grown by an average of around 3% p.a. in 2019–2025. This includes both acquisitions and divestments, making it challenging in our view to estimate the exact organic growth figure. The growth has been driven by the parcel and logistics business, while revenue from postal services has contracted in line with structural trends. Over the same period, the company has generated an average reported EBITDA of 18 MEUR, but the earnings have been boosted almost annually by the sales of various assets. Thus, we believe operational performance has been rather weak and adjusted EBIT has hovered around zero. In 2025, Omniva's operational earnings capacity improved slightly as stronger revenue growth lifted adjusted EBIT to around 2 MEUR. As growth continues, Omniva's operational performance may remain stronger than its historical track record. Omniva's balance sheet has improved over the years thanks to asset sales, and at the end of 2025, the net debt/EBITDA ratio was 1.2x, which we consider a healthy level.

Development of Omniva's key figures and rough estimates by Inderes

Source: Omniva, Inderes

We estimate that Posti will participate in the auction

We believe the key logic of the transaction would be to strengthen Posti's market position in the Baltic parcel market, where Posti currently holds a market share of around 20% in consumer parcels. Combining Posti's and Omniva's overlapping operations (e.g., delivery network) would also generate cost synergies, which would provide conditions for improving profitability within Omniva. It is worth noting that through the transaction, Posti would also expand into B2B parcels, where it does not currently operate in the Baltic region, at least not to any significant extent. However, in our view, the transaction would also bring unwanted business, such as structurally shrinking and unprofitable postal services. However, Posti’s track record in operating similar businesses is excellent in Finland, but differences between markets (such as regulation) may pose challenges for the turnaround of operations to profitability. In the big picture, we consider Omniva a suitable acquisition target for Posti and expect the company to participate in the bidding process.

Posti's net debt (excl.  IFRS 16 items) was 214 MEUR at the end of Q2 . This corresponds to 1.1x the EBITDA of the previous 12 months. Posti's target is to keep the ratio below 2.5x, which would give the company acquisition capacity of over 200 MEUR based on current earnings. In addition, through the liquidation of its real estate portfolio, the company is set to release approximately 85 MEUR of capital, which could be used to finance the transaction. Thus, we do not consider financing to be an obstacle to the transaction.

The transaction should go through

The transaction would strengthen Posti's market position in the Baltic parcel market. According to our calculations, Posti's and Omniva's Baltic (excl.  Omniva's international freight) business would generate revenue of around 150 MEUR in last-mile parcel delivery services. Based on data from Posti's listing prospectus, the Baltic parcel delivery market (B2C and B2B parcels) is valued at 400-500 MEUR. This would mean that the market share of the combined Posti and Omniva entity would rise roughly to 30-40%. This should not be an obstacle to the completion of the transaction. However, the competition authority evaluates market shares on a country-by-country basis, and we do not have complete certainty regarding their exact sizes. Thus, following the transaction, country-specific shares could rise to the thresholds of a dominant market position, particularly in consumer parcels. In that case, certain country-specific conditions might be imposed on the completion of the transaction.

The value creation opportunities of the transaction are at least moderate from Posti's perspective

The starting price for Omniva's shares in the auction has been set at 52 MEUR. Based on our estimated net debt for 2026, this would imply an enterprise value (EV) of around 70 MEUR. When we compare the valuation against our 2027-28 estimates for Omniva, it corresponds to an EV/S ratio of around 0.4x and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 3–4x. Compared to Posti’s own multiples and Posti’s peer group (EV/S ~0.9x and EV/EBITDA 7-8x), these multiples are moderate, but considering Omniva's relatively large depreciation (i.e., low EBIT), we believe they are somewhat warranted. Given the company's volatile and still low earnings and return on capital development, we also would not be prepared to accept peer-level multiples for Omniva in the transaction.

Our estimate for Omniva's fair value is 70-100 MEUR (EV). Our estimate is based on the 2027 estimate and valuation multiples that we consider fair (EV/S of 0.4–0.6x, EV/EBITDA of 5–7x, and EV/EBIT of 8–10x). The midpoint of the fair value range is 85 MEUR which would represent a premium of around 20% compared to the starting price of the bidding process (EV of around 70 MEUR). We consider this reasonable, as we do not believe the auction will lead to a fierce bidding war due to Omniva's declining postal business. Venture capitalists are unlikely to be interested in a structurally declining and partially regulated industry. However, internal consolidation of the industry has taken place in the Baltics (e.g. DHL and Venipak), so several industrial players are still likely to participate in the auction.

From this perspective, we find Posti's position as a potential winner of the bidding process to be at least moderate, meaning that an enterprise value of 85 MEUR could create long-term shareholder value. Based on our 2030 estimate, Omniva could generate an EBIT of around 10 MEUR without potential integration synergies or improvements in operational capability brought by Posti. This would roughly translate to a 12% return on an invested capital of 85 MEUR, which is a good level in the industry, and the transaction would thus create value. If the purchase price runs away (e.g., 100 MEUR), value creation would require an earnings level of nearly 15 MEUR. However, we do not consider this earnings level impossible given the industry and Posti's profitability levels in Finland, but we emphasize that this would likely require support from the postal services side as well (e.g., reducing the loss).