Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/14/2026 at 9:30 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Vara Research (consensus)

Posti's top-line development met our expectations, but the operating result far exceeded them. Earnings development was particularly strong in parcel services, where all the key drivers moved in the right direction. The guidance was kept unchanged, which, after a strong Q2, appears to be on fairly solid ground again. According to our preliminary assessment, our forecasts are subject to at least slight upward pressure, but first, we will listen to the company's views on the market outlook and the more detailed steps regarding the impact of the reform program, which will contribute to this year's earnings development. Posti's English earnings call can be followed here starting at 11:00 am EEST.

Top-line development was in line with our expectations

Posti's Q2 revenue grew by 2% year-on-year, amounting to 362 MEUR. This outcome was consistent with our estimate of 361 MEUR but slightly exceeded the consensus expectation (354 MEUR). eCommerce and Delivery Services revenue increased by a solid 9%, driven by volume growth. Revenue increased in both Finland and the Baltic countries. Posti's total parcel volumes grew by 12%, and we believe growth occurred in all parcel categories. In Fulfillment and Logistics Services, revenue increased slightly (1%), driven by Sweden. The company stated that the market situation in Sweden has improved, which has been particularly difficult in recent years due to subdued basic demand. In Finland, the warehousing business developed stably as Posti has won several small customers, though on the other hand, the loss of a large customer who exited the outsourcing market at the beginning of the year continues to weigh on the company's sales relative to the comparison period. The volume decline in Postal Services (24%) continued to be steeper than our expectations (15%), but successful price increases kept the revenue decline relatively moderate (7%). The price increases were actually higher than we anticipated, meaning Postal Services' revenue was in line with our estimate. The sharp decline in Postal Services volumes compared to historical levels (around 3%) was driven by the digital transition of official communications.

Adjusted earnings exceeded forecasts and comparison period levels

Posti's adjusted EBIT in Q2 increased from the comparison period to around 13 MEUR (Q2'25: 12 MEUR), corresponding to a profitability of 3.4%. The result exceeded our estimate (Inderes and cons. 10 MEUR), both absolutely and relatively, largely driven by the strong performance of the parcel business. The strong earnings development of eCommerce and Delivery Services (11 MEUR vs. 6 MEUR) was driven by not only volume growth, but also an improved sales mix as the share of high-margin freight and B2B parcels increased. In Fulfillment and Logistics Services, earnings development was slightly weaker than in the comparison period and was driven by factors including tight price competition, the ramp-up phase of new customer accounts (to be scaled up later), and a change in sales mix. In Postal Services, the company's earnings also declined slightly, which we consider understandable given such a sharp drop in volumes. Overall, we believe the earnings guidance for Postal Services has been at a good level at the beginning of the year, for which the company has a strong historical track record. Due to stronger operating development than we had expected and lower income taxes, adj. EPS for Q2 (approximately EUR 0.13) was higher than in the comparison period (EUR 0.09) and our forecast (EUR 0.10).

Guidance was reiterated, and we believe the outlook has improved

Posti reiterated its guidance for 2026, indicating revenue of 1,400–1,500 MEUR (2025: 1,448 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT of 63–79 MEUR (2025: 69 MEUR). The guidance reiteration was in line with our expectations, as our pre-report earnings estimates were in the ballpark of the midpoints of the guidance ranges. The strong progress in Q2 and Finland’s improved economic growth outlook boost our confidence that the guidance will be met. The pick-up in economic growth should be reflected in the logistics market immediately, particularly for Posti in eCommerce and Delivery Services and Fulfillment and Logistics Services. In these areas, Posti's earnings are still below their potential, so an increase in demand would be an important driver of earnings growth for the segments and consequently for the entire group. The company expects the effects of the Astra transformation program to begin showing in H2 and to continue through 2029. The program aims to improve the cost efficiency of Postal Services and eCommerce and Logistics Services, targeting cost savings of 40 MEUR. Thus, we view the company's earnings growth outlook as quite favorable for the remainder of the year and the following years. Although risks regarding geopolitical uncertainties remain elevated, so far, they have not directly impacted the company's operations. However, rising inflation and interest rates could reduce demand for Posti’s services but we assume that the positive momentum of the Finnish economy will more than offset these negative underlying factors. Taking a broader view, we note that Posti's outlook has improved since the beginning of the year.