Translation: Original published in Finnish on 06/04/2026 at 08:22 am EEST

Source: Inderes & Bloomberg (consensus, 6 analysts)

Puuilo will publish its Q1 report on Thursday, June 11, at around 8:30 am EEST. We expect the company to continue on its growth path, driven by new stores and strong comparable growth. However, we estimate that cost pressures and a stable gross margin have weighed on relative profitability compared to the comparison period. We expect Puuilo to reiterate its guidance for this year, and in addition to the figures, we will pay particular attention to the progress of the expansion in Sweden.

We expect slower sales growth than usual

We forecast Puuilo's Q1 revenue to have grown by 8% year-on-year to 96 MEUR (H1'25: 89.3 MEUR). The consensus forecast expects 100 MEUR in revenue. The growth figure we estimate is moderate compared to Puuilo's history, partly due to a strong comparison period (18% growth) and new store openings being more heavily weighted towards the end of the year (Q1'26: +5 stores y/y and Q4'26: +7 stores y/y). Revenue growth is driven by the increased store network from the comparison period and the good sales development of comparable stores. We anticipate that the average shopping cart size will remain in place, which means that growth will primarily be driven by a rise in customer numbers. We believe that the positive development in customer numbers is the most crucial factor for the company's long-term growth story, ensuring Puuilo scaling benefits as sales per unit in new stores rise towards the 10 MEUR level. We emphasize that the positive start to the year in the consumer goods market could even lead to an increase in the average basket size, which would support earnings development more strongly than our estimates.

Moderate growth and cost investments weigh on profitability

We expect Puuilo's adjusted EBITA in Q1 to have been 10.9 MEUR, which is almost at the same level as the comparison period (Q1'25: 10.8 MEUR). The consensus (~12 MEUR) is more optimistic about Q1’s performance. In our view, the company's earnings growth in the first half of the year is limited by front-loaded investments in expanding the store network and ramping up the Swedish business. The latter does not yet generate any revenue for the company, so costs fully impact earnings development. For Q1, we anticipate a gross margin of around 37%, in line with the comparison period, making positive sales development the sole factor supporting earnings growth. We forecast EPS to have decreased slightly from EUR 0.09 in the comparison period to EUR 0.08 due to increased financing costs.

Guidance reiteration expected, eyes on the conquest of Sweden

We expect Puuilo to reiterate the guidance for the financial year 2026, which it provided in connection with its financial statements. The company guides that its current year revenue will be 480–510 MEUR and adjusted EBITA 80–90 MEUR. Our own estimate for the full-year revenue is 495 MEUR, while the consensus expects 500 MEUR in revenue. Current EBITA estimates (Inderes 85 MEUR and consensus ~86 MEUR) are also in the middle of the guidance range. In the report, we are particularly interested in management's comments on the progress of internationalization. Puuilo has announced that it will open its first store in Sweden in 2027, and with the hiring of a country manager and the mapping of store locations, the project is progressing concretely. The effects of elevated oil prices on the company's or competitors' price levels and consumer behavior are also essential themes for the earnings release day. In addition, we look for clarification of the company's views on the sustainability of the non-grocery market's good performance, as the early-year momentum has been at odds with weak consumer confidence.