Revenio Q2'25 preview: Tough headwinds ahead

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/4/2025 at 7:57 am EEST.

Revenio will publish its Q2 report on Thursday at around 9.00 am (EEST). The company's key figures face significant headwinds from the EUR/USD exchange rate and US import tariffs, which also cause uncertainties in demand development. Roughly half of Revenio's revenue is in US dollars. Uncertainty is indeed very high, but we estimate the operational performance to have been quite solid. As a result, currency-adjusted growth should be within guidance, even though reported key figures are likely modest in the company's scale. We made minor downward revisions to our estimates in connection with this preview, largely due to the significant change in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Source: Inderes and Modular Finance (July 31, 2025, consensus)

We expect good currency-adjusted growth

We expect Revenio's revenue in Q2 to be around 27.4 MEUR, which would translate to a reasonable 7-8% growth from the comparison period. However, we estimate that currency-adjusted growth, which is significantly more important in the long term, has exceeded 10%. The euro strengthened throughout Q2, ending at around 1.17 USD. The translation impact alone will therefore be significant, as approximately half of Revenio's revenue comes from the United States. Assessing the impact is complicated by the fact that the company changed its accounting method at the turn of the year, and some of the changes are reflected in financing expenses. The direction is still clear.

Another major uncertainty in Q2 is the impact of US import tariffs on demand. The EU import duty was mainly 10% in Q2, which has also applied to Revenio's health technology. In our view, its direct impact is limited, and Revenio has been able to offset the effects with previous inventories and price increases. On the product side, the new MAIA microperimeter has been a clear growth driver, with the sales it generated in Q2 representing direct growth in imaging devices. Otherwise, the sales drivers are familiar, and we expect good sales in tonometers (iCare ST500 supports growth), their probes, and imaging devices (especially iCare DRSplus and EIDON). We see the greatest risks with more expensive equipment, as investments in them can be postponed amidst uncertainty.

Currencies also weigh on the result

We expect Q2 EBIT to be 6.7 MEUR (Q2’24: 5.3 MEUR), which would translate to an EBIT margin of 24.5% (Q4’24: 20.6%). We made significant downward revisions to our Q2 estimates due to FX impacts, which negatively affect both reported revenue and relative profitability. Nevertheless, we expect a clear earnings improvement at the EBIT level from the weak Q2’24 comparison period, whose EBIT was burdened by a 0.7 MEUR Ventica write-down. On the other hand, we also expect a clear improvement from the Q2’24 adjusted EBIT (6.0 MEUR). The most significant factor here is moderate revenue growth, in our estimate with a gross margin of over 70% (Q2’24: 70.5%), but we also estimate that costs related to the FDA application for the iCare ILLUME screening solution have remained low. To our understanding, the early part of the year has been quiet in terms of clinical trials. Otherwise, the cost structure is likely to continue to face upward pressure as personnel costs increase. Our estimates are now slightly lower than consensus estimates for Q2.

In connection with this preview, we also raised the net financing expenses forecast to 1.0 MEUR, whereas the normal level for a net debt-free company would be around zero. This is due to negative changes caused by FX on the balance sheet, and this further weakens the bottom lines of the income statement. We expect the impact of US tariffs on operational profitability to have been moderate. The company stated in connection with its Q1 report that it would be able to compensate for the negative earnings impacts of a 10% import tariff level (an estimated 0.8-1.4 MEUR for Q2-Q4'25) through price increases. For Q2, we understand the company had excess inventory in the United States. However, tariffs have now risen to 15% and apparently also apply to Revenio's products, so pressure is increasing for the rest of the year.

Currencies will weigh on key figures also in the remainder of the year

For 2025, Revenio has guided for year-on-year revenue growth of 6-15% at constant exchange rates and good profitability excluding non-recurring items. The growth guidance range has been wide due to high uncertainty, and this uncertainty has not diminished. We consider a refinement of the guidance possible at mid-year, but we estimate currency-adjusted revenue growth to still be around 10%. Instead, the persistence of the current EUR/USD level would cause significant pressure on reported earnings for the rest of the year, and the increase in US import tariffs does not help the situation.

Roughly half of Revenio's revenue comes from the United States, and the company's products are manufactured in Europe (Finland and Italy). We believe that the largest competitors also manufacture their products mainly outside the United States, which means that we do not see major changes in Revenio's relative competitive position. However, price increases may affect customer behavior, but in our view, a clearly more significant negative impact will come through the EUR/USD exchange rate. Overall impacts are still difficult to assess, which is why the company's comments on the outlook, FX impacts, and customer reactions to the situation are critical. In addition, we look forward to comments on the potential impact of Topcon's latest IRIS acquisition on Revenio's outlook. We left any major estimate changes until the earnings update, when visibility is expected to improve slightly.