Translation: Original published in Finnish on 9/16/2026 at 7:50 am EEST.

Tuesday's Capital Markets Day clarified Revenio's outlook for the 2027–2029 strategy period. The updated strategy builds logically upon the broader product portfolio resulting from the Visionix acquisition, and the company is now making a stronger push to offer turnkey solutions throughout the patient journey. Although the day's offerings, strategy, and new financial targets provide a more concrete outlook, the path toward achieving full synergies appears to be longer than we previously anticipated. Significant measures will still be taken in 2028, whereas we had anticipated that the heaviest integration period would end in 2027. We have not changed our estimates, but we recognize pressure regarding 2028 due to this delay. Otherwise, we did not observe any substantial changes in the big picture.

Strategy is built on the Visionix acquisition

From a strategic perspective, the update presented during the Capital Markets Day is a logical progression from the Visionix acquisition, which was finalized in May and expanded Revenio’s offerings, increasing its target market from approximately 1.1 BUSD to 2.7 BUSD. The company aims to lead the shift from individual vision care devices to connected eye health by offering solutions ranging from diagnostic equipment to software. We believe this is the right direction to take, as the shortage of resources and capacity challenges in the sector require the healthcare system to adopt increasingly integrated and efficient solutions and workflows.

The growth in scale and offerings has given Revenio access to new customer accounts and large, comprehensive solution tenders that the former Revenio could not reach. We estimate that the sales force and sales potential are now significantly higher, as the product portfolio covers the entire sector, excluding devices related to eye surgery. Concrete steps presented included expanding US sales territories from 18 to 27, establishing six direct sales organizations in Central Europe, and deepening the network of over 400 distributors. In our view, improving the efficiency of the distribution network is one clear area for achieving synergies and improving efficiency.

Financial targets became more concrete

During the new strategic period, the company aims to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5–10% in organic revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25% by the end of 2029. As expected, the company has abandoned its previous ambiguous target of "three times market growth." In our view, the new target of 5–10% organic growth is realistic and aligns well with our own growth forecasts of 6–7% for 2028–2029. The broad product portfolio naturally includes areas with faster and weaker growth. We believe the strongest revenue growth prospects are in the OCT category, where 10% growth seems realistic, while lens edging will experience the weakest growth. The overall market was estimated to grow by 3.9% annually, but growth has not materialized in recent years despite strong underlying megatrends.

The profitability target is based on realizing synergies exceeding 20 MEUR identified in the Visionix acquisition, achieving economies of scale, and increasing the share of software and services. This target also aligns with the company's previous statements, and our forecast for the EBITDA margin in 2029 is 25.3%. These targets thus reinforce our previous view of the new entity’s earnings potential following a more challenging integration phase. The company did not mention the previously indicated long-term EBITDA margin target approaching 30% at this time because specific targets were only set for the strategic period ending in 2029. However, we understand that the company's assessment of the profitability potential of the whole remains unchanged.

Integration takes time but synergies are realistic

The company reiterated its synergy target of over 20 MEUR, of which it reported having secured 5 MEUR already in its Q2 report. New information revealed that about 70% of the synergies are operational (procurement, assembly, supply chain, and general expenses), and about 30% are commercial, whereas our previous estimate was 60/40. We view this as positive, as cost synergies are more predictable, and the company's operational share of 14 MEUR is in line with our own cost synergy assumption. We are more confident than before that the synergies will be achieved, even though we have not fully factored them into our estimates.

However, we are disappointed that the integration process appears to be taking longer than our previous estimate of 18 months. The timing of the approximately 20 MEUR in one-off costs is more back-end loaded than we have modeled: according to the company, around 20% will be realized in H2'26, 50% in 2027, and 30% not until 2028. In our projections, one-off expenses totaled 12 MEUR in 2026 and 8 MEUR in H1'27. We will spread the one-off costs over a longer timeframe in our model, extending them to 2028. Furthermore, the benefits of these measures will likely also materialize more slowly than anticipated, and we estimate downward pressure, particularly on the operating profit forecast for 2028. We will address this in the next update, but based on current information, we advise assessing the development as relatively linear in 2027-2029. Currently, our estimates show a significant improvement in profitability, particularly in 2028.

The profitability bridge presented by the company started at a pro forma level of 17.9% in 2025 and ended at over 25% in 2029. Synergies of 20 MEUR alone account for about two-thirds of the targeted improvement in profitability, leaving a limited role for earnings leverage driven by growth. However, growth is profitable in principle, and gross margins (2025 PF: 60.5%) will rise as a result of the measures as well, which is why we consider the target realistic. Revenio has traditionally set targets that it has also achieved.

Commercial logic is convincing, but the evidence is not here yet

In our view, the information received regarding the products, the market, and customer segments was largely as expected. The product offering with Visionix is broad but logical. We believe it is noteworthy that the edging and mounting category (Briot/Weco) was the only one in the product matrix without a differentiating factor and cloud feature. This category is likely on the periphery of the portfolio and a potential divestment target in the medium term. Based on the company's comments, however, the business is profitable, and according to management, the gross margins on Visionix's products are quite uniform. The pro forma gross margin for the entire entity in 2025 was 60.5%, so the gross margins of all products are healthy as a starting point.

The company also stated as new information that the share of recurring revenue is around 20% (approx. 50 MEUR), which is roughly in line with our expectations. The company did not disclose a specific target, but it is seeking growth in the software segment, which we believe is an interesting area to monitor. The level of recurring revenue at former Revenio was naturally about 30% higher (due mainly to sales of tonometer sensors), but based on the figures, Visionix has also had a reasonable amount of recurring software revenue. In our view, this provides a credible foundation for the software strategy.

From an investor's perspective, the revenue breakdown by product category, Visionix's manufacturing strategy, the future brand architecture, and the exact timeline for the rights offering remained unclear. We continue to view realization of the offering as the most significant near-term driver for the stock, expected to occur in Q4. While the company does not intend to switch to segment reporting, it does aim to gradually improve its current reporting practices.

Leverage is higher than before

In April, Revenio estimated that the net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio would decrease to below 2.5x and the net gearing ratio would decrease to below 50% following the rights issue; these estimates are now approximately 3.0x and below 70%. This practically means that debt leverage is slightly higher than previously estimated, and normalizing the balance sheet will take longer than anticipated. According to our estimates, net debt/adjusted EBITDA will be around 3.3x at the end of 2026, which is slightly higher than Revenio's estimate. We will also review our balance sheet estimates in connection with the next update. From a financing perspective, we do not consider the increase in debt leverage to be of great significance, as the covenants are being met and the offering is guaranteed.

The change is not due to the offering amount, which remains at 80 MEUR, but to both components of the key figures. Revenio's net debt at the end of Q2 was 237.9 MEUR, compared with approximately 209 MEUR in the April pro forma calculation. This difference is attributed to negative operating cash flow in the first half of the year (H1'26: -5.8 MEUR), 6 MEUR in cash-based integration and transaction costs, an increase in working capital, and the refinancing of Visionix’s existing 58 MEUR loans and drawdown of a revolving credit facility. Depending on the cash flow in H2, the net debt after the offering will therefore be approximately 160 MEUR, rather than the previously estimated 130 MEUR. Second, the denominator decreased slightly as the 2025 pro forma adjusted EBITDA was revised down to 45.3 MEUR (prev. 47.6 MEUR). The pro forma EBITDA for H1'26 was also only 17.4 MEUR, which is why the trailing 12-month EBITDA has decreased slightly. In our view, this is due to the operational earnings decline of the former Revenio in H1'26. Third, equity is smaller than expected because the shares issued to the sellers were recorded according to IFRS at the share price on the acquisition date of EUR 13.44 (33.4 MEUR), rather than the subscription price of EUR 22.40 (55.7 MEUR), reducing equity by around 22 MEUR. This accounts for about one-third of the change in net gearing and is a technical issue because the directed share issue was part of the payment for Visionix. In any case, cash flow must improve significantly during the seasonally strong H2’26.