Translation: Original published in Finnish on 07/02/2026 at 08:45 am EEST

Finnish news outlets have recently reported on Russia's decisions to close border crossings between the country and Finland. In addition, Russia is raising customs duties on railway transports to Finland. We estimate that these decisions could reduce freight flows from Russia and thereby significantly weaken the volumes of North Rail, which operates under Nurminen Logistics' Railway business. The news clearly elevates the risks to our estimates, and we will review the pressures for estimate revisions in the near future.

Border changes can cut freight flows and North Rail's business

Among others, Yle reported on Wednesday that Russia has decided to raise customs duties on railway transports from Russia to Finland and closed border crossing points on the Finnish border. Based on Russian news sources, Yle reports that railway transport customs duties were increased eightfold starting July 1, and certain products will be subject to even higher customs duties. According to comments from the industry, the decisions will lead to a clear contraction in import flows from Russia, although the concrete effects will likely still take time to materialize.

North Rail is a significant high-margin business for Nurminen

North Rail's business (Nurminen owns just under 80% of the company), operating under Nurminen's Railway business, currently consists of transporting goods from Russia to Finland for Finnish and Western customer companies. In our view, the freight transported by North Rail consists largely of fertilizers critical to global food supply, metals (nickel) required for the green transition, and ammonia, which it transports from the eastern border to domestic customers or, alternatively, overseas via the port of Kotka. Thus, the company has transported products that are estimated to be affected by the now announced Russian measures.

In 2025, the Railway business accounted for 45% of Nurminen's revenue and around 70% of its adjusted EBITA. We estimate that a significant portion of this was generated by the highly profitable North Rail business, which has been a major pillar for the company's earnings. Thus, if the recently announced Russian measures cut the flow of goods between Finland and Russia, it is expected to have a significant impact on Nurminen's earnings. As the decisions only came into effect on Wednesday, it is still very challenging to accurately assess their impact. We are assessing the situation and will review the pressure for changes in our estimates in the near future, but the news now reported clearly elevates the risks to our Nurminen estimates.