Saab: GlobalEye breakthrough makes the export narrative stronger

Saab announced on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, that it had signed a contract with the French defense procurement agency (DGA) for two GlobalEye airborne early warning and control aircraft. The order is valued at around 12.3 BSEK, with deliveries scheduled for 2029-32. The order strengthens Saab's position in the European defense market, but due to the long delivery schedule, we do not expect it to have a significant impact on our estimates for the coming years.

France selects GlobalEye for air surveillance

Saab has signed an agreement with the French defense procurement agency (DGA) for the delivery of two GlobalEye airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. GlobalEye is a multi-role surveillance solution that provides long-range detection capabilities in the air, at sea, and on land. In addition to the aircraft, the agreement includes ground equipment, training, and support. The order is valued at ~12.3 BSEK, with deliveries scheduled for 2029-32. The agreement also includes an option for the acquisition of two additional aircraft.

Strategically significant breakthrough

We consider the order a strategically very significant win for Saab. France is one of Europe’s largest defense spenders and a core NATO player, so the selection of GlobalEye as its airborne early warning and control solution is a strong proof point for the system’s competitiveness in international campaigns. The announcement was followed by a smaller 3 BSEK order from Lithuania on December 31, 2025, for RBS 70 Bolide missiles, with deliveries expected in 2028-32, underlining a very strong finish to the year. As we noted in our comment on the Q4 orders up until December 29, Saab was already tracking an exceptionally strong quarter for order intake, and the French contract lifts the total further. Based on what has been publicly disclosed, we expect the order intake to land at around ~85 BSEK in Q4.

No material pressure for the upward revision of estimates

The contract is meaningful in headline terms, equivalent to ~6% of the order book as of Q3'25 (at ~202 BSEK). If Saab starts manufacturing the aircraft in 2026, this should translate into some revenue and cost recognition already from 2026, as long cycle projects are recognized over time based on percentage of completion (PoC). For context, if we spread the ~12.3 BSEK order value evenly across 2026-32, it implies ~1.8 BSEK of annual revenue, corresponding to ~2% of our 2026 revenue estimate. The profitability impact is harder to pin down, but higher volumes should, at the margin, support a gradual uplift through utilization and scale effects. With expectations already optimistic for the coming years, we still do not expect a material impact on our near-term revenue or profitability estimates.

On cash flow, the timing is dictated by the billing schedule set out in the contract. With capacity still tight and budgets rising, buyers are increasingly willing to prepay to secure production slots, so defense contracts can pull cash forward through advance payments and milestone or performance-based payments, even though the final settlement is typically tied to delivery and acceptance. Without visibility on this contract’s payment profile, we assume that aside from any potential advance payment, the bulk of cash generation is back end loaded and should mostly land around the turn of the decade and into the early 2030s as deliveries and acceptances begin.

The bigger impact is long-term. The order materially improves visibility for the business area Surveillance toward the turn of the decade and supports our view that Saab’s long-term revenue growth prospects remain strong. As we noted in our previous commentary, Saab's challenge in the coming years is primarily to increase production capacity and secure healthy supply chain flows to meet demand, not to secure new orders. With that said, the French order is yet another indication of the demand for the company's technology in the current geopolitical situation.