Sanoma Q2'26 preview: We expect slight earnings growth, but our eyes are already on Q3
Summary
- Sanoma's Q2 revenue is expected to remain flat year-on-year at 340 MEUR, with slight growth in the Learning segment offsetting a decline in Media Finland's revenue.
- Adjusted EBIT for Q2 is estimated at 66 MEUR, reflecting slight earnings growth driven by efficiency improvements in the Learning segment, while Media Finland's earnings are expected to remain stable.
- Consensus estimates for the current year place Sanoma's revenue at 1,327 MEUR and operational EBIT at 221 MEUR, slightly above the midpoint of the company's guidance range.
- Attention is focused on Q3, a critical period for full-year earnings, with particular interest in comments on order flow for the next semester as schools prepare to reopen.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 07/27/2026 at 07:59 am EEST
| Estimates | Q2'25 | Q2'26 | Q2'26e | Q2'26e | Consensus | 2026e | |||
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Inderes | ||
| Revenue | 340 | 340 | 341 | 330 | - | 355 | 1321 | ||
| Adjusted EBIT | 62 | 66 | 66 | 64 | - | 67 | 218 | ||
| EBIT | 49 | 55 | 54 | 48 | - | 56 | 175 | ||
| EPS (adj.) | 0.21 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.23 | - | 0.26 | 0.82 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | -0.8 % | 0.0 % | 0.2 % | -2.9% | - | 4.5% | 1.5 % | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 18.3 % | 19.3 % | 19.4 % | 19.4% | - | 18.9% | 16.5 % | ||
Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 7 estimates)
Sanoma will publish its Q2 report on Wednesday at around 8:30 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue to have developed steadily, but we expect slight earnings growth as a result of operational efficiencies. The company's earnings guidance range for the current year indicates significant earnings growth, and our and consensus expectations are slightly above the midpoint of the guidance range.
Our revenue estimate is in line with the comparison period
Like the consensus, we estimate Sanoma's Q2 revenue to have been flat year-on-year at 340 MEUR. We estimate Learning's revenue to have grown by just over 1%, supported especially by the growth of the learning materials market in Poland and Spain, and by slight inorganic growth reflecting the Vicens Vives acquisition. At the same time, we expect that Media Finland's revenue will decrease by 2% from the comparison period. This particularly reflects a clear decrease in advertising revenue, which is, however, offset by our estimated slight growth in subscription revenue.
We expect slight earnings growth as a result of efficiency improvements
Our estimate for Sanoma's Q2 adjusted EBIT is 66 MEUR, which represents slight earnings growth year-on-year and is in line with the consensus estimate. Our estimated earnings growth will practically come from the Learning segment's earnings improvement, driven by its extensive Solar efficiency program and the more efficient cost structure it generates. We estimate Media Finland's earnings to have been at the comparison period's level, as we believe the top-line decrease has overshadowed the margin expansion resulting from changes in the revenue structure and typical efficiency measures. We have slightly revised our net financing cost estimates upwards, reflecting, among other things, the acquisitions made, and thus our Q2 EPS estimate is now at EUR 0.25 (was EUR 0.26). The estimate changes for the full year were small, at -2%.
Our estimates are above the midpoint of the earnings guidance
Consensus median estimates expect Sanoma's revenue to be 1,327 MEUR (Inderes: 1,321 MEUR) and its operational EBIT to be 221 MEUR (Inderes: 218 MEUR). Sanoma has guided that its current year revenue will be 1.29-1.34 BEUR and adjusted EBIT will be 205-225 MEUR. Thus, our estimates, which are slightly above the midpoint of the current year's earnings guidance range, practically expect the guidance to remain unchanged. Q2 is still a low-volume period for the Learning business, and attention is firmly on Q3, which is critical for the full-year earnings. Thus, in connection with the Q2 report, comments on the order flow for the next semester are of particular interest, for which we estimate the company has moderate visibility now that the return to schools is approaching.
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Sanoma is an innovative and agile learning and media company with two business segments: Learning and Media Finland. Learning's educational products and services reach 25 million students in K-12 education in 12 European countries. Media Finland has Finland's leading multichannel media offering (digital and print newspapers, magazines, TV and streaming services, and radio and audio services), through which it reaches 97% of Finns every week, enabling effective marketing solutions for corporate clients. The company's operations have a positive impact on the lives of millions of people every day.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures26.07.
| 2025 | 26e | 27e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,302.5 | 1,321.4 | 1,364.3 |
| growth-% | -3.1 % | 1.5 % | 3.2 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 154.9 | 188.4 | 201.4 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 11.9 % | 14.3 % | 14.8 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.57 | 0.82 | 0.87 |
| Dividend | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| Dividend % | 4.5 % | 4.9 % | 5.2 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 16.4 | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 | 5.7 | 5.5 |
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