Sanoma Q3'26 preview: The plot thickens, with Learning’s profitability in focus
Summary
- Sanoma's Q3 report is anticipated to show improved profitability, particularly in the Learning segment, due to efficiency measures, with revenue expected to grow by 4% year-on-year to 535 MEUR.
- Learning's revenue growth, driven by curriculum reforms in Poland and Spain, offsets declines from terminated Dutch contracts, while Media Finland's revenue is expected to decrease by 2% due to lower advertising revenue.
- Inderes estimates Sanoma's Q3 adjusted EBIT at 199 MEUR, aligning with consensus, with significant profitability improvements in Learning and a slight improvement in Media Finland.
- Sanoma is expected to specify its earnings guidance, potentially raising the lower end, as Learning's growth may push results towards the upper end of the current guidance range of 1.29-1.34 BEUR in revenue and 205-225 MEUR in adjusted EBIT.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/26/2026 at 08:10 am EET
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Consensus | 2026e | |||
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Inderes | ||
| Revenue | 516 | 535 | 541 | 535 | - | 547 | 1318 | ||
| Adj. EBIT | 172 | 199 | 201 | 199 | - | 204 | 220 | ||
| EBIT | 82 | 185 | 189 | 185 | - | 191 | 169 | ||
| EPS (adj.) | 0.73 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.89 | - | 0.93 | 0.82 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | -4.5 % | 3.7 % | 4.9 % | 3.7% | - | 6.0% | 1.2 % | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 33.4 % | 37.1 % | 37.1 % | 37.2% | - | 37.2% | 16.7 % | ||
Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 7 estimates)
Sanoma will publish its Q3 report on Wednesday at around 8:30 am EET. The quarter is particularly interesting, as the extensive efficiency measures previously worked on by the company are expected to lift Learning's profitability and thereby also the Group's earnings to a new level. We expect the company to specify its earnings guidance range for the current year, and our estimate is above the midpoint of the current earnings guidance range, in line with consensus.
We expect revenue to grow, driven by Learning's growth
We expect Sanoma's Q3 revenue to have grown by 4% year-on-year to 535 MEUR. We estimate that Learning's revenue grew by 6%. Growth is driven in particular by curriculum reforms in Poland and Spain. This, combined with acquisition-driven growth, offsets the revenue contraction caused by the termination of the Dutch distribution contracts. We estimate Media Finland's revenue to have decreased by 2% from the comparison period, driven by a clear decline in advertising revenue. In our estimates, the impact of advertising revenue development is offset by steadily developing subscription revenue.
Impact of efficiency measures visible in Q3
Our estimate for Sanoma's Q3 adjusted EBIT is 199 MEUR, which represents a substantial earnings improvement year-on-year and is in line with the consensus estimate. Earnings growth will largely stem from the Learning segment, where we expect the efficiency measures implemented in recent years to significantly strengthen its profitability as the top line grows (Q3'26e adjusted EBIT margin 45.8% vs. 41.1% in Q3’25). We also expect a slight improvement in profitability from Media Finland. Driven by operational earnings growth, we also expect Q3 adjusted EPS to have clearly increased, reaching EUR 0.90 per share.
We expect the company to specify its earnings guidance
Consensus median estimates expect Sanoma's revenue to be 1,327 MEUR (Inderes: 1,318 MEUR) and its operational EBIT to be 223 MEUR (Inderes: 220 MEUR). Sanoma has guided that its current year revenue will be 1.29-1.34 BEUR and adjusted EBIT will be 205-225 MEUR. Historically, Sanoma has often provided conservative guidance and narrowed its earnings guidance range in connection with Q3 by raising the lower end. We expect the company to do so in Q3 as well, as we expect Learning's earnings growth to pull the group's result closer to the upper end of the current guidance range.
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