Sanoma Q4'25 flash comment: Guidance points to expected strong earnings growth
Summary
- Sanoma's Q4 revenue declined by 6% to 226 MEUR, aligning with expectations, due to factors like the termination of low-value contracts in the Netherlands and curriculum renewal timing in Spain.
- The adjusted operating loss for Q4 was 27 MEUR, consistent with projections, reflecting the seasonality of the learning business and a slight earnings improvement in Media Finland.
- Sanoma's guidance for the current year indicates expected strong earnings growth, with projected revenue of 1.29-1.34 BEUR and adjusted EBIT of 205-225 MEUR, aligning with prior estimates.
- The company plans to redeem its outstanding hybrid bond on March 16, consistent with forecasts, and will pay a dividend of EUR 0.42 per share for 2025.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/11/2026 at 9:15 am EET.
| Estimates | Q4'24 | Q4'25 | Q4'25e | Q4'25e | Consensus | Diff-% | 2025 | |||
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Realized | Inderes | Consensus | High | Low | Act. vs. Inderes | ACT. | ||
| Revenue | 241 | 226 | 227 | 233 | 231 | - | 235 | -1% | 1,303 | |
| Adjusted EBIT | -27 | -27 | -28 | -27 | -29 | - | -25 | 1% | 188 | |
| EBIT | -47 | -51 | -39 | -41 | -45 | - | -37 | -31% | 49 | |
| EPS (adj.) | -0.21 | -0.2 | -0.16 | -0.21 | -0.21 | - | -0.21 | -25% | 0.57 | |
| DPS | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.4 | - | 0.43 | 0% | 0.42 | |
| Revenue growth-% | -4.80% | -6.50% | -6.00% | -3.50% | -4.30% | - | -2.70% | -0.5 pp | -3.0% | |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | -11.30% | -12.10% | -12.20% | -11.60% | -12.60% | - | -10.60% | 0 pp | 14.40% | |
Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 7 estimates)
Sanoma announced its Q4 result this morning, which was operationally consistent with our expectations. The company will also increase its dividend, as we had forecasted. Our main focus in the report was on the guidance for the current year, which was as strong as expected and points to clear earnings growth for the current year. You can follow Sanoma's Q4 earnings call, starting at 11.00 EET, via this link.
Revenue declined significantly and in line with our expectations
Sanoma’s revenue fell by 6% in Q4 to 226 MEUR, which was in line with our estimates. Learning's revenue fell by 8% year-on-year, which was slightly more than we had forecast (-4%). The decline in revenue reflects the termination of low-value distribution contracts in the Netherlands and the timing of the curriculum renewal in Spain, and there were no major surprises overall in the developments. Media Finland’s revenue decreased by 5%, which was more moderate than the 7% decrease we predicted. This was due to a slightly smaller-than-expected decline in advertising income, while subscription income growth was slightly buoyant compared to our expectations.
Earnings development in line with our expectations
Sanoma's adjusted operating loss in Q4 was 27 MEUR, which was well within our expectations. The operating loss in the last quarter reflects the strong seasonality of the learning business, and Learning's operating loss was consistent with our projections, maintaining the level of the comparison period despite the top-line decrease. Media Finland achieved a slight year-on-year earnings improvement due to positive subscription income development and a decline in certain costs. Overall, its result was also in line with our forecast.
Reflecting the overall operating results, including, among other things, depreciation higher than our forecasts, adjusted earnings per share for Q4 fell more than predicted to EUR -0.21. Sanoma will pay a dividend of EUR 0.42 per share for 2025, which was in line with our forecast.
Current-year guidance points to expected strong earnings growth
Sanoma provided guidance for 2026, expecting revenue of 1.29-1.34 BEUR (2025: 1.3 BEUR) and adjusted EBIT of 205-225 MEUR (2025: 188 MEUR). Before the report, our and the consensus estimates for revenue this year were 1.3 BEUR, and the estimates for adjusted EBIT were 215-219 MEUR. The guidance falls exactly within the range outlined in our earnings preview, confirming the anticipated positive earnings growth outlook for the current year. The company's underlying assumptions for its guidance include the expectation that demand for learning materials will increase, driven by curriculum renewals in some of the group’s operating markets, and that the advertising market in Finland will be relatively stable. These assumptions were as expected. Sanoma also announced this morning that it will redeem its outstanding hybrid bond on the reset date (March 16), which is in line with our forecasts.
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Sanoma is an innovative and agile learning and media company with two business segments: Learning and Media Finland. Learning's educational products and services reach 25 million students in K-12 education in 12 European countries. Media Finland has Finland's leading multichannel media offering (digital and print newspapers, magazines, TV and streaming services, and radio and audio services), through which it reaches 97% of Finns every week, enabling effective marketing solutions for corporate clients. The company's operations have a positive impact on the lives of millions of people every day.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures06.02.
| 2024 | 25e | 26e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,344.7 | 1,304.2 | 1,302.6 |
| growth-% | -3.5 % | -3.0 % | -0.1 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 180.0 | 188.0 | 179.5 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 13.4 % | 14.4 % | 13.8 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.74 | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| Dividend | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| Dividend % | 5.1 % | 4.9 % | 5.0 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 10.4 | 11.2 | 11.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
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