Scanfil Q2'25 flash comment: Earnings growth still lacked momentum in Q2

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 07/17/2025 at 09:06 am EEST

Source: Inderes

Scanfil released its Q2 report this morning. The downside risks associated with our forecasts materialized, and Q2 figures were lower than we expected. However, as expected, the company reiterated its 2025 guidance. According to our preliminary assessment, the report does not cause radical organic changes to our Scanfil forecasts in the short term, but the ADCO and MB acquisitions, likely to materialize in H2, will structurally change the forecasts, especially from 2026 onwards.

Revenue grew moderately supported by the SRX acquisition in Q2

In Q2, Scanfil's revenue increased by 3% to 202 MEUR from a modest comparison level. Organically, we estimate that revenue declined by some 1%, as the SRX acquisition supported revenue by around 4%, or 8.8 MEUR. In Q2, revenue development was more subdued than we expected, especially in terms of organic growth. The Americas, which continued its strong growth of over 30%, exceeded our expectations, but in other regions, and especially in Central European factories dependent on cleantech projects, revenue was lower than our forecast. 

The operating result remained at the comparison period level in Q2 

Scanfil's adjusted EBITA decreased by 4% to 14.2 MEUR in Q2, which fell short of our overly optimistic forecast as revenue remained below our expectations. Profitability (adj. EBITA-% ) settled at 7.0%, similar to Scanfil's baseline in recent years. In terms of profitability, the Americas' result and profitability fell short of our forecasts despite strong growth, while APAC achieved a stronger-than-expected and quite good margin. In Central and Northern Europe, profitability met our expectations, but earnings fell short of our estimates due to revenue-related reasons. 

In the lower lines, Scanfil reported unsurprisingly small 0.3 MEUR one-off costs (not in forecasts) related to the ADCO acquisition in Q2, while financial expenses likely turned positive due to currency-based reasons, and the tax rate fell slightly below our forecasts. Thus, Scanfil’s Q2 EPS of EUR 0.16 was one cent below the comparison figure and our estimate. In terms of cash flow, Q2 seems to have gone reasonably well for Scanfil, although cash flow from operating activities clearly decreased from the comparison period, which was supported by an exceptionally strong release of working capital. 

Guidance remained unchanged as expected

Scanfil reiterated its guidance for 2025 of 780-920 MEUR revenue and 55-68 MEUR adjusted EBIT. The reiterated guidance was in line with our expectations. In our view, the company will easily exceed the lower end of the guidance range, at the latest with the help of acquisitions completed in H2 (not included in the guidance). In our view, the rather wide ranges reflect the uncertainty still associated with the near-term outlook, especially regarding external factors, which remains significant due to the uncertainty of the trade policy situation. Comments for the remainder of the year were positive, and the company expects development to accelerate further from Q2, which provided a clear improvement from Q1. However, the report did not reveal the root causes of the optimism, but the company should have a reasonable order backlog for H2, thanks to projects won last year. The company succeeded in winning new projects worth 42 MEUR in Q2, which corresponds to a modest growth of some 3% year-on-year.