Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/20/2025 at 8:32 am EET.

Scanfil will publish its Q3 report on Friday at around 8:00 am EET. In our view, Scanfil has progressed in Q3 with the ramp-up of projects won last year, in addition to which the SRX acquisition has supported the figures inorganically in Q3. Thus, we expect Scanfil's operating profit to have finally turned to growth in Q3. However, we have marginally lowered our forecasts, as Scanfil did not close the ADCO acquisition in Q3 as originally scheduled (though we expect the acquisition to close in Q4). We estimate Scanfil will reiterate its guidance, although there may be slight downward pressure on the upper ends of the rather wide ranges, given the continued subdued macroeconomic picture in Europe.

Revenue should turn to organic growth

We estimate that the underlying tone of Scanfil's demand has been roughly similar to the satisfactory comparison period, as a clear pick-up in industrial activity has still been limited. However, we expect projects won last year to have supported the company's revenue, as deliveries should already accelerate after the H1 ramp-up phase. In addition, the SRX acquisition, completed last October, has supported inorganic growth by approximately 4–5 percentage points in Q3. Thus, we expect Scanfil's revenue to have grown by 14% in Q3 to 197 MEUR.

We expect revenue development to have turned slightly positive in Central and Northern Europe due to project wins, while reported growth in APAC is strong due to the acquisition. In the Americas, US trade policy may still have had positive short-term demand effects, although in the longer term and considering indirect effects, global trade restrictions are, in our opinion, also a bad thing for Scanfil.

We also expect the company to deliver earnings improvement driven by revenue growth

We estimate Scanfil's adjusted EBIT for Q3 to be 14.6 MEUR, 14% higher than in the comparison period. In our forecast, earnings growth is driven by organic revenue growth and the SRX acquisition. Of the regions, we expect the Americas, APAC, and Central Europe to have moderately improved their results, while in Northern Europe, the result to be flat year-on-year. We estimate profitability to have remained stable at Scanfil's baseline adjusted EBITA margin of just over 7% in Q3.

On the lower lines, our financial expense and tax forecasts are in line with Scanfil's normalized levels, although non-cash FX differences that are not material to the company as a whole could slightly impact financing costs and EPS. We expect Scanfil's EPS to have risen quite clearly from the comparison period, driven by the operating result. From a cash flow perspective, the report may be slightly weaker than the result, as the turnaround in revenue may have increased working capital, although the company still has room for improvement in working capital turnover.

Reiterating the guidance is the base scenario

Scanfil has issued guidance for the current year, according to which the company's 2025 revenue will be 780–920 MEUR and adjusted EBITA 55–68 MEUR. We expect the company to reiterate its guidance at this point in the year, as projects won last year and the SRX acquisition, which provided inorganic growth until Q3, as well as the ADCO and MB acquisitions, which are still expected to be completed in Q4, will act as buffers, even if the recovery in demand may still be limited. In our view, the upper ends of the guidance range are starting to look optimistic given the current situation, so a slight decrease in the upper ends or a moderate reduction in the mid-points of the ranges would not be a huge surprise.