Sitowise Q4'25 preview: Improved earnings from a soft comparison period

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/9/2026 at 7:00 am EET.

Source: Inderes

Sitowise will publish its Q4 report on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, at 8:30 am EET. We expect the company's revenue to have decreased slightly from the comparison period, driven by Sweden and the Buildings business. However, we expect the adjusted EBIT to have improved significantly from the weak comparison period, as Finnish operations have improved. Nevertheless, the reported result will be weighed down by the substantial impairment announced in December. Our interest in the report will focus on any guidance provided for 2026, as well as comments on the timing of the market recovery and the development of the order book. This will also be the first appearance of the new management at an earnings announcement.

Revenue continues to decrease, weighed down by Sweden and Buildings

We forecast Sitowise's Q4 revenue to decrease by 1.4% to 48 MEUR (Q4’ 24: 48.7 MEUR). In our estimation, the drivers of revenue development have remained unchanged for the rest of the year: The Infra and Digital Solutions businesses are growing, but the Buildings business and Swedish operations are declining. The decline in revenue has been particularly steep in Sweden, and we expect the challenges to have continued in the last quarter. In the Buildings business, low new construction activity continues to weigh on volumes. There is one more working day in Q4 than in the comparison period, which provides some support for the estimates.

Adjusted result improves, impairment weighs reported figure deep into the red

We expect the adjusted EBITA to have improved to 2.2 MEUR (Q4'24: 1.2 MEUR), corresponding to a margin of 4.5%. The comparison period was very weak for the company, so despite lower revenue, an improvement in earnings is expected thanks to the adjustment measures taken. We expect Finnish operations to continue the earnings improvement seen at the beginning of the year. However, profitability is still burdened by the unprofitable Swedish business, where the turnaround has proven to be slower than expected. The reported EBIT will be deeply negative, as the company announced in December that it would recognize a goodwill impairment of approximately 40 MEUR related to its Swedish operations. This one-time item does not affect cash flow or adjusted EBITA but clearly pushes reported earnings per share into negative territory. We expect financial expenses to remain high due to increased indebtedness.

Guidance and balance sheet position take center stage

Even though Sitowise did not dare to provide guidance for 2025 due to poor visibility, we consider it possible that the company will provide guidance for 2026 in connection with the report. If the company provides guidance, we expect it to include revenue growth and an improved adjusted EBITA margin compared to 2025. Currently, we expect the revenue for 2026 to grow by about 3% to 191.5 MEUR and the adjusted EBIT to increase to 12.1 MEUR (2025e 8.8 MEUR). We believe the company's comments indicate a slow market recovery, which will be more pronounced in the second half of 2026.

Investors will also closely examine the order book development in the earnings release. The order book should remain at least unchanged at 149 MEUR or, preferably, start growing to support growth expectations for 2026. However, as in the previous quarter, the company played it safe with regard to this indicator. In its investor newsletter, published before the quiet period, the company stated that significantly increasing the order book overall is challenging in the current market environment.

We are also closely monitoring the company's comments on revitalizing its Swedish operations and developing its balance sheet position. The net debt/EBITDA ratio had risen to a very high level (Q3’25: 7.2x), but we now expect the ratio to start declining, as Q4 is typically strong in terms of cash flow, which reduces net debt. Additionally, the improvement in earnings achieved in Q4 also slightly increases EBITDA.